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Each week we will provide trends for the top teams in college football. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2005, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
No. 1 Alabama (-42.5) vs. Fresno State
Bama is a 42.5-point favorite in its home opener against Florida Atlantic. The majority of spread bets are on the Tide, is that a smart decision?
- Following a game against a top 25 team, Bama is 18-28 ATS under Saban
No. 2 Ohio State (-7.5) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma
The best game of the weekend is another Top-5 matchup. Ohio State throttled Oklahoma in Norman last year. The Sooners would like to return the favor on Saturday but this trend points to the Buckeyes.
- In top 25 matchups, home favorites of 7 or more points are 88-69 (56.1%) ATS
No. 3 Clemson (-5.5) vs. No. 13 Auburn
A Tigers vs. Tigers top-25 matchup takes place Saturday. Clemson beat Auburn to begin last season on their way to its first national title in 35 years. Dabo Swinney is hoping another win over Auburn can propel his team to great heights.
- Clemson is 3-9 ATS as a favorite against a ranked team (under Dabo)
No. 4 Penn State (-21) vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh will have its hands full in Happy Valley. Heisman hopeful Saquon Barkley total 246 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. If stopping the star running back wasn’t hard enough, the Nittany Lions have a more than capable passer under center.
- With Trace McSorley starting, Penn State is 6-0 ATS as a ranked team against an unranked opponent
No. 5 Oklahoma (+7.5) at No. 2 Ohio State
A majority of spread bets and dollars are on the Sooners as underdogs of more than a touchdown on the road. Oklahoma could disappoint public bettors.
- In top 25 matchups, teams ranked within 5 spots of each other, the underdog is 51-74 (40.8%) ATS
No. 6 USC (-6) vs. No. 14 Stanford
A potential Pac-12 title game preview takes place Saturday. USC is fresh off a win over Western Michigan while Stanford has had a week off following the Cardinal’s trip to Australia. We will learn which team is for real in this pivotal early season matchup.
- In top 25 matchups in the Pac-12, the favorite is 45-29 (60.8%) ATS
No. 7 Washington vs. Montana
Washington beat Rutgers 30-14 to start the season but the Huskies looked unimpressive in the victory. Chris Petersen’s team gets a tune-up game against Montana. At the time of publication there was no line for this game.
- Top 10 teams vs. FCS teams are 19-32 (37.3%) ATS
No. 8 Michigan (-34.5) vs. Cincinnati
The Wolverines put on an impressive performance in Week 1 beating Florida 33-17. Now Michigan returns home as a big favorite over Cincy.
- Under Harbaugh, Michigan is 16-2 SU but 9-9 ATS vs. unranked teams
No. 9 Wisconsin (-31.5) vs. Florida Atlantic
The Badgers opened as 31.5-point favorites, a big number to cover, but Wisconsin has treated bettors kindly as a top 10 team at home.
- As a top 10 team at home, Badgers 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS
No. 10 Florida State (-32) vs. Louisiana Monroe
Florida State lost more than its Week 1 game to Alabama. The Noles will be without starting quarterback Deondre Francois for the remainder of the season. FSU will have a week to break in new starter James Blackmon against UL Monroe before an in-state game against Miami.
- Teams off a loss of 14 or more points in Week 1 to a top-10 team are 38-23 ATS in Week 2
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