We started with 68 teams, now less than a fourth of the squads remain after two rounds. Heading into the Sweet 16 what teams have value to win the college basketball championship?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NCAA championship at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds they cut down the nets. For example, North Carolina is the favorite at +500, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Tar Heels they would need to win it all 16.1% (which is 100/(500+100)) of the time. UNC is projected to win March Madness 10.4% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +500 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Current odds: +665, Implied Probability: 10.5%

Zags win the tournament 20.2% of the time

There is a lot to like about Gonzaga and it can be summed up like this: they are the most likely tournament winner, yet are not the favorites. There is a ton of value in Mark Few’s squad. With blue bloods North Carolina, Kentucky and Kansas still playing the Zags aren’t getting the attention they deserve.

Florida Gators

Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 6.2%

Gators win the tournament 10.9% of the time

The Gators took care of business in the opening weekend by routing Eastern Tennessee State and embarrassing Virginia. Then the East region opened up with the early departures of Villanova and Duke. Its no cakewalk but Florida has a clear path to the Final Four.

Kentucky Wildcats

Current odds: +1200, Implied Probability: 6.2%

Wildcats win the tournament 10.6% of the time

John Calipari’s team is stacked with NBA talent (Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo). The team with the best players usually wins. Kentucky is going to try and ride that formula to a title.


No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 3 UCLA

There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-63 (60%) ATS

Which team should you bet?


Other teams with value: Baylor +1400, West Virginia +1800, Oregon +1800 and Purdue +2000

Below is each team’s odds and projected chance to cut down the nets.

TeamOddsImplied ProbabilityProjected Chance
Gonzaga66510.520.2
Florida12006.210.9
Kentucky12006.210.6
North Carolina50016.110.4
Kansas50016.17.8
West Virginia18004.27.5
Baylor14005.46
Purdue20003.85.3
Oregon18004.24.5
Arizona80094.3
Wisconsin18004.23.4
Michigan18004.23
UCLA14005.82.7
Butler50001.61.6
South Carolina50001.61.3
Xavier100000.80.6