Villanova, Duke, Louisville and Florida State have been sent home but that still leaves 12 of the top 16 seeded teams in the tournament. In this chalky Sweet 16, which team is most likely to win it all?

To find out we simulated the regional semifinals of the 2017 NCAA tournament 10,000 times. The Bracket Simulator combines our historical database along with data from Ken Pomeroy, ESPN and Jeff Sagarin to run the simulations.

Gonzaga was our pre-tourney pick to cut down the nets in Phoenix and the Bulldogs remain the favorites in the simulations. However, the Zags odds have decreased slightly (20.6% to 20.2%). Why? To reach the championship Mark Few’s team will have to beat West Virginia (6th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings), likely Arizona (18th) and then some combination of Florida or Baylor, two top ten teams.

Speaking of the Gators, the early exits of Villanova and Duke in the East have made Florida the favorites to win the region. Before the tournament tipped, Florida had an 11.9% chance to reach the Final Four and a 3.1% chance to win the tournament. Now the Gators are the second most likely team to play in the final weekend and win March Madness.


No. 4 Florida vs. No. 8 Wisconsin

There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-63 (60%) ATS

Which team should you bet?


The most likely Final Four is No. 1 Gonzaga, No. 4 Florida, No. 1 North Carolina and No. 1 Kansas. We had projected an all chalk Final Four prior to the start of the tournament and that projection remains relatively unchanged. There is just a 2% chance we get this exact Final Four.

Of the Cinderella’s left dancing: 7-seeds South Carolina and Michigan, 8-seed Wisconsin and 11-seed Xavier, only the Wolverines have better than a 40% chance of winning their next game. Combined they have an 8.3% chance to win the championship, up from 1.9% before the first round.

TeamSeedFinal FourChampionship
Gonzaga147.120.2
Florida438.510.9
Kentucky235.610.6
North Carolina136.510.4
Kansas130.67.8
West Virginia425.47.5
Baylor329.56.0
Purdue424.95.3
Oregon325.24.5
Arizona221.44.3
Wisconsin820.03.4
Michigan719.43.0
UCLA315.62.7
Butler412.31.6
South Carolina712.11.3
Xavier116.10.6