The Sweet 16 is set. We know how the committee ranked these teams before the tournament began but after the first weekend of March Madness, which squad is No. 1?

We simulated each of the remaining 16 teams in the tournament against each other on a neutral court 10,000 times and ranked them based on winning percentage in those games.

Gonzaga entered the tournament as the No. 1 team in our simulations and despite a slow start against South Dakota State and a close win over Northwestern nothing has changed. The Zags are the only team in our simulations projected to win against all other Sweet 16 opponents and are 20.2% likely to win the tournament.

There is a large gap between Gonzaga and the rest of the field. No. 2 North Carolina is closer to No. 8 Purdue than to the Bulldogs. The Tar Heels, Florida, West Virginia and Kentucky round out the top 5.

The simulations have been down on Arizona and UCLA all season and the Power Rankings continue to reflect the numbers disdain for the Wildcats and Bruins.

Sweet 16 Matrix – likelihood of winning vs. other Sweet 16 teams

The closest Sweet 16 matchups are all in the Midwest. Kansas and Oregon are slight favorites to win against Purdue and Michigan.

It would be a true coin flip game between North Carolina and Kentucky in a potential Elite Eight showdown we all want to see. In the most likely title game, Gonzaga is projected to beat North Carolina 63.4% of the time.

Sweet 16 Power Rankings

RankTeamSeedWin% vs Sweet 16
1Gonzaga170.2
2UNC159.8
3Florida459.2
4WVU458.2
5Kentucky258
6Kansas154.5
7Baylor350.4
8Purdue449.9
9Oregon348.5
10Wisconsin846.9
11Arizona246.5
12UCLA345.2
13Michigan743.8
14Butler440.9
15South Carolina737.4
16Xavier1130.2