The first game of the Sweet 16 tips Thursday when No. 3 Oregon faces No. 7 Michigan. Here are the betting trends you need to know ahead of the NCAA tournament’s second weekend.
There is incredible power in understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios. Using Bet Labs massive database of proprietary sports betting information you can easily build and explore data-driven betting systems. Our database goes back to 2004-05, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
General Betting Trends
Underdogs have proven profitable in the Sweet 16. Teams getting at least 3 points have gone 36-32 ATS since 2005. When you add additional filters the profitability increases.
Filter ATS Record Units Won Teams that Match
Total <138 23-11 10.87 South Carolina (SC)
Opp ATS Win % > 50% 35-24 9.42 WVU, Xavier, Butler, SC
Following Win of 4 or less 16-6 9.28 Purdue
Previous Game ATS Margin 0-10 23-14 8.02 WVU, Purdue, Butler
Team ATS% <55% 23-14 8.01 WVU, Xavier, SC
Def Allows <65.5 PPG 18-10 7.05 No Matches
Getting +50% of spread bets 13-6 6.48 Xavier, Butler
Opp Last Win 1-7 points 15-8 6.31 WVU, Butler, SC
Trends by Seed
Remember, these trends involve small sample sizes and are meant for entertainment purposes only.
The top seeds in the tournament haven’t lost a Sweet 16 game since 2014 and haven’t had a losing second weekend since 2013. 1-seeds are 33-10 straight-up in the regional semifinals.
1-seeds are 22-21 ATS in the Sweet 16 since 2005 but 9-1 ATS in the last three tournaments.
2-seeds are 23-7 straight-up in the Sweet 16, 13-1 against teams seeded No. 4 or higher and 5-0 against double-digit seeds. Arizona will play No. 11 Xavier in the West semifinal.
Against double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16, 2-seeds are 3-1-1 ATS.
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 11 Xavier
There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-63 (60%) ATS
3-seeds have a losing record (13-14) in the Sweet 16 because they usually play 2-seeds but against all other seeds they are 7-4 straight-up. Oregon plays 7-seed Michigan and Baylor plays 7-seed South Carolina.
3-seeds are 4-5 ATS as a favorite and 8-10 ATS as an underdog in the Sweet 16.
There are four 4-seeds in the Sweet 16 this year, the first time that has happened since 2014. 4-seeds haven’t had a winning regional semifinal since 2013 and are just 8-15 straight-up in the Sweet 16.
4-seeds getting <40% of the spread bets have gone 1-4 ATS since 2005. Only 25% of spread bets are on Purdue as 5 points underdogs against Kansas.
7-seeds are a boring 4-6 straight-up and against-the-spread with nothing more of note to mention.
This shouldn’t be too surprising but 8-seeds have really struggled to reach the Sweet 16. A second round matchup against the top seeds in the tournament can do that to teams. There have been 48 teams to earn an 8-seed in the tournament since 2005, only three have reached the Sweet 16. 8-seeds are 2-1 straight-up and against-the-spread in the Sweet 16.
11-seeds are 0-5 straight-up against 2-seeds in the Sweet 16 and 1-3-1 against-the-spread. It was fun while it lasted, Xavier.