It is Championship Week and every major conference tournament is about to tip off. With automatic bids to the NCAA tournament on the line we have simulated each conference tournament 10,000 times using the Bracket Simulator to determine the most likely winner(s).
When: March 8-12th
Where: Nashville, TN
The automatic bid goes to: Florida (41.2%)
Florida ended the regular season on a down note losing two of their last three. Of course both losses were on the road to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, two NCAA tournament teams. Don’t let regency bias cloud your judgment. The Gators have beaten six projected tournament teams including three in non-conference play and have one of the best defenses in the country.
And if they lose: Kentucky (39.9%)
The Wildcats won the league by two games and are without argument the most talented squad in the SEC. Kentucky is incredibly balanced ranking 13th and 14th respectively in kenpom.com’s offensive and defensive efficiency. When John Calipari’s team is firing on all cylinders they’re not just the best team in the conference, they are tops in the nation.
Teams with Value
Which teams are offering value to win the SEC tournament?
Florida +170: The Gators have longer odds than Kentucky and a better chance to win the tournament.
South Carolina +1150: Path and seed in a tournament is key, South Carolina has favorable odds and a double-bye. A semifinal matchup against Kentucky seems likely and with the second most efficient defense in the country there is value backing the Gamecocks.
All-time March Madness Pro Systems are 882-592 (60%), +239.41 units
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Odds to win the SEC Tournament (based on 10,000 simulations of the conference tournament)