The first round of games is in the books. We looked at tournament trends for the Round of 64, here are how teams have performed in the Round of 32 from a betting perspective.
There is incredible power in understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios. Using Bet Labs massive database of proprietary sports betting information you can easily build and explore data-driven betting systems. Our database goes back to 2004, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
No 1-seed has ever lost to a 16-seed and they don’t get knocked out of the tournament before the Sweet 16 very often either. In our database, the top 4 seeds in the tournament are 43-5 straight-up.
1-seeds are 15-11 ATS vs. 8-seeds, 11-9-1 ATS vs. 9-seeds in the Round of 32.
1-seeds that won their previous game by less than 30 points are 21-14 ATS in their next game. Villanova and Gonzaga both qualify after slow starts and closer than expected (from a gambling perspective) wins on Thursday.
At least one No. 2 seed has lost in the second round in 9 of the last 12 years. 2-seeds are 30-14 straight-up overall.
2-seeds have a losing against-the-spread record vs. 7-seeds (12-15 ATS) and 10-seeds (7-9 ATS).
The No. 3 seeds are 27-13 straight-up overall in the Round of 32, 14-6 vs. 6-seeds and 13-7 vs. 11-seeds.
The 3-seed is 22-17 ATS in the second round but has just one profitable tournament in the Round of 32 since 2009 (10-11 ATS).
If your favorite team is a 4-seed you should hope they play a 12-seed. Overall 4-seeds are 23-15 straight-up in the Round of 32 but 11-3 straight-up against 12-seeds. No. 4 Butler plays No. 12 Middle Tennessee on Saturday.
4-seeds have a losing against-the-spread record in the Round of 32 (18-20 ATS) and despite dominating the 12-seeds straight-up they are just 6-8 ATS.
No. 4 West Virginia vs. No. 5 Notre Dame
There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 90-61 (60%) ATS
In the Round of 32, 5-seeds play most of their games against 4-seeds, which isn’t too surprising. Against 4-seeds, 5-seeds are 12-12 straight-up but against 13-seeds they are 3-1 straight-up since 2005. Unfortunately, no 13-seeds advanced to the next round this year.
5-seeds are a generic 14-14 ATS in the Round of 32 (.500 ATS vs. both 4-seeds and 13-seeds). Watch out for 5-seeds getting a lot of public support. No. 5 seeds getting +50% of the bets in the Round of 32 are 3-9 ATS.
Since 2005, 6-seeds have never lost to 14-seeds in the Round of 32 (6-0) but are 6-14 straight-up vs. 3-seeds.
Against 14-seeds, 6-seeds are 5-1 ATS, they are 6-11 ATS vs. 3-seeds when they are getting less than 50% of the bets.
No. 7 seeds struggle in the second round, 10-20 straight-up, even when they face 15-seeds (1-1 straight-up).
Despite struggles winning games, if a 7-seed gets the majority of spread bets (+50%) they are 7-2 ATS.
Congratulations, you are an 8-seed. Theoretically you are better than half the other teams in the bracket. However, if you manage to get by the 9-seed in the opening round you slam into the 1-seeds. Since 2005, 8-seeds are 3-23 straight-up in the Round of 32.
If the 8-seed covered their opening game, they are 5-11 ATS vs. 1-seeds in the next round. No. 8 seeds Wisconsin and Northwestern both won and covered yesterday.
11-seeds perform better than you might think in the Round of 32 going 9-13 straight-up. If the No. 11 seed is favored, they are 4-1 straight-up. Xavier advanced as an 11-seed but are 6 point underdogs to Florida State in the next round.
When 11-seeds get less than 50% of the spread bets they have gone 8-5 ATS.
The 5-12 upset is popular but you’d be wise to not pick the 12-seed to advance to the Sweet 16. In the Round of 32, 12-seeds are 7-13 straight-up.
12-seeds have proven profitable if they make it out of the opening round. No. 12 seeds have gone 12-8 ATS. Middle Tennessee is a 4 point underdog vs. Butler.