Relegation in soccer is when the bottom teams in each league are demoted to a lower division. After the 2016 season, Hull City, Middlesbrough and Sunderland were relegated from the Premier League to the Championship. Who are the favorites to be sent down in 2017?

Huddersfield (-150), Brighton (+120) and Burnley (+125) are the oddsmakers picks to be relegated. The Terriers and Seagulls were just promoted to the top flight this year.

How likely are the favorites to finish in the bottom three of the Premier League? Using SportsOddsHistory, I pulled the last five years of relegation odds. On average, of the three favorites to lose their spot in the upper division 1.4 teams get relegated.

The favorites to be relegated are expected to be bad. How have they performed for bettors?

YearClubML RecordUnitsFinish
2016Hull City9-29-3.4918th
Burnley11-27+5.9716th
West Brom12-26-0.2710th
2015Watford12-26-3.0313th
Norwich City9-29-9.5519th
Bournemouth11-27-3.6716th
2014Burnley7-31-5.1719th
Queens Park Rangers8-30-13.6520th
Leicester City11-27-7.4114th
2013Hull City10-28-5.7816th
Crystal Palace13-25+15.3411th
Cardiff City7-31-6.320th
2012Reading6-32-12.8119th
Southampton9-29-10.3514th
Wigan Athletic9-29-11.1118th

In the last five years, betting the three favorites to be sent down has cost bettors 71.3 units (a loss and draw count against each team). Fading these teams has netted bettors 14.3 units of profit.

History suggests at least one of Huddersfield, Brighton and Burnley will be relegated. All will likely struggle and it has been profitable to fade teams favored to be demoted.

2017 Premier League Relegation Odds

ClubOdds (BetOnline)
Huddersfield-150
Brighton+120
Burnley+125
Watford+160
Swansea+225
Newcastle+400
Crystal Palace+450
West Bromwich Albion+550
Bournemouth+600
Stoke City+700
West Ham+800
Leicester+1400
Southampton+2000
Everton+8000
Tottenham+25000
Arsenal+25000
Liverpool+25000
Manchester Utd+25000
Chelsea+25000
Manchester City+25000

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