Last week CG Technology released betting lines for every NFL game from Week 1 to Week 16. Using the point spreads we projected what the 2017 NFL win totals could look like. On Sunday, South Point Race and Sportsbook released their NFL win totals for the upcoming season. How did our projections compare?
Pretty well. 17 teams were with in 0.5 a game or less of their projected win total and all but four teams win totals were within one game.
Jacksonville’s win total was off the most. The Jags were projected to have a win total of 7 but opened at 5.5 games. Blake Bortles led the Jaguars to just three wins last season. Despite playing in a weak AFC South it looks like another down year in Jacksonville.
The Bills are another team with a lower than expected win total (projected 7, opened 6). On the other end of the spectrum the Ravens and Titans both opened with win totals of 9.5, a game higher than we would expect based on the weekly betting spreads.
Based on the actual win totals, the Patriots are still expected to be the class of the NFL. New England opened at 11 but has been bet up to 11.5. The Pats have won 12 or more games in seven straight seasons.
The Seahawks, Steelers, Packers and Falcons are the only other teams with double-digit win totals.
The Browns (4), 49ers (4.5) and Bears (5) have the lowest win totals in the league, in line with our projections.
Dallas won 13 games last year thanks to inspired play by rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys win total opened at 9.5, 3.5 games fewer than they won. That is the biggest difference of any team in the NFL.
Based on the totals here are the most likely playoff teams.
|Patriots (11)||Seahawks (10.5)|
|Steelers (10.5)||Packers (10)|
|Titans (9.5)||Falcons (10)|
|Raiders (9.5)||Cowboys (9.5)|
|Ravens (9.5)||Panthers (9)|
|Colts (9) or Chiefs (9)||Giants (9)|
2017 NFL Win Totals
|Team||2016 Wins||Projected 2017 Win Total||2017 Win Total|
|New England Patriots||14||11.3||11|
|Green Bay Packers||10||10.1||10|
|New York Giants||11||8.4||9|
|Kansas City Chiefs||12||8.5||9|
|New Orleans Saints||7||7.7||8.5|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||9||7.9||8|
|Los Angeles Chargers||5||6.8||7.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||4||5.7||5.5|
|New York Jets||5||5.4||5.5|
|San Francisco 49ers||2||5.1||4.5|