Last week CG Technology released betting lines for every NFL game from Week 1 to Week 16. Using the point spreads we projected what the 2017 NFL win totals could look like. On Sunday, South Point Race and Sportsbook released their NFL win totals for the upcoming season. How did our projections compare?

Pretty well. 17 teams were with in 0.5 a game or less of their projected win total and all but four teams win totals were within one game.

Jacksonville’s win total was off the most. The Jags were projected to have a win total of 7 but opened at 5.5 games. Blake Bortles led the Jaguars to just three wins last season. Despite playing in a weak AFC South it looks like another down year in Jacksonville.

The Bills are another team with a lower than expected win total (projected 7, opened 6). On the other end of the spectrum the Ravens and Titans both opened with win totals of 9.5, a game higher than we would expect based on the weekly betting spreads.

Based on the actual win totals, the Patriots are still expected to be the class of the NFL. New England opened at 11 but has been bet up to 11.5. The Pats have won 12 or more games in seven straight seasons.

The Seahawks, Steelers, Packers and Falcons are the only other teams with double-digit win totals.

The Browns (4), 49ers (4.5) and Bears (5) have the lowest win totals in the league, in line with our projections.

Dallas won 13 games last year thanks to inspired play by rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys win total opened at 9.5, 3.5 games fewer than they won. That is the biggest difference of any team in the NFL.

Based on the totals here are the most likely playoff teams.

Patriots (11)Seahawks (10.5)
Steelers (10.5)Packers (10)
Titans (9.5)Falcons (10)
Raiders (9.5)Cowboys (9.5)
Ravens (9.5)Panthers (9)
Colts (9) or Chiefs (9)Giants (9)

2017 NFL Win Totals

Team2016 WinsProjected 2017 Win Total2017 Win Total
New England Patriots1411.311
Seattle Seahawks1010.410.5
Pittsburgh Steelers1110.110.5
Green Bay Packers1010.110
Atlanta Falcons119.610
Baltimore Ravens88.49.5
Tennessee Titans98.49.5
Oakland Raiders128.99.5
Dallas Cowboys1310.19.5
Carolina Panthers68.19
Indianapolis Colts88.59
New York Giants118.49
Kansas City Chiefs128.59
Cincinnati Bengals688.5
New Orleans Saints77.78.5
Philadelphia Eagles77.78.5
Minnesota Vikings88.48.5
Denver Broncos98.38.5
Houston Texans98.38.5
Detroit Lions97.88
Tampa Bay Buccaneers97.98
Los Angeles Chargers56.87.5
Arizona Cardinals78.47.5
Washington Redskins87.57.5
Miami Dolphins107.87.5
Buffalo Bills776
Jacksonville Jaguars375.5
Los Angeles Rams45.75.5
New York Jets55.45.5
Chicago Bears35.85
San Francisco 49ers25.14.5
Cleveland Browns14.74