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Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Jets vs. Bills (-3)
Week 9 in the NFL starts with a divisional matchup on Thursday Night Football. Buffalo is a small road favorite in primetime and despite exceeding expectations this season New York is getting little public support. At the time of publication, less than 30% of spread bets were on the Jets.
In the first half of the season, we have little data about each team. It is profitable to fade the public in Weeks 1-8, especially in division games where teams are familiar with one another, but in the second half of the season the value disappears.
Teams getting <30% of spread bets in division games
- Week 1-8: 80-57-2 (58.4%) ATS
- Week 9-17: 90-101-4 (47.1%) ATS
Texans (-13) vs. Colts
Houston looks to get back on track Sunday against Indy after a disappointing 41-38 loss to Seattle in which they twice held fourth quarter leads. The Texans are -670 on the moneyline, an 87.0% implied probability of winning. Too bad covering the spread won’t be as easy as winning the game.
- Non-division games: 138-138-5 (50.0%) ATS
- Division games: 75-106-5 (41.4%) ATS
Giants vs. Rams (-3.5)
Two well rested teams meet in New York in Week 9. The Rams (5-2) and Giants (1-6) have had a bye week to make adjustments and plan for the second half of the season. Sean McVay’s team is playing for a division title, the G-Men are trying to salvage a lost season. More than 70% of spread bets are on the Rams as road favorites. Should bettors go chalk or fade the public?
Week 9: Giants-Rams
This Pro System is 142-89-4 (61.5%) ATS since 2003
Saints (-7) vs. Buccaneers
Though it shouldn’t matter, ATS records influence casual bettors. The public will fade teams that have let them down and load up on squads that cash tickets. Knowing this, contrarian bettors can profit by simply taking bad ATS teams (Buc 1-5-1 ATS) against good ATS teams (Saints 5-2 ATS).
Bad ATS teams (<30% win rate) vs. good ATS teams (>70% win rate): 153-121-9 (55.8%) ATS
- In division games: 57-38-5 (60.0%) ATS
49ers vs. Cardinals (-2.5)
Bye weeks give teams extra time to get healthy and prepare for future opponents. Historically, it has been profitable to bet teams coming off a bye. The sweet spot is targeting road favorites. Usually home teams are the chalk (favorites), if a road team is laying points that is an indication they are a good squad. Teams favored on the road typically have better talent and coaching, a combination that can further exploit the advantages of a bye week.
Arizona is a small road favorite in San Francisco after a Week 8 bye.
Favorites after a bye
- Home: 87-74-4 (54.0%) ATS
- Road 52-28-2 (65.0%) ATS
Dolphins vs Raiders (-2.5)
Oakland and Miami are both coming off disappointing losses. The Raiders turned the ball over four times in a 34-14 beating in Buffalo and the Fins got shutout 40-0 on the road in Baltimore after Joe Flacco was knocked out of the game in the second quarter. Teams are undervalued after a blowout. The Raiders and Dolphins each got routed in their previous game but the public is back on Oakland. At the time of publication, only 25% of spread bets are on Miami.
Teams getting <50% of spread bets after a blowout (20 or more points): 265-213-12 (55.4%) ATS