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Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Bengals -10.5 vs. Colts
Indy got waxed by Jacksonville 27-0 on Sunday. The Colts gave up 518 yards of total offense and allowed Blake Bortles to throw for 330 yards. It was ugly. The silver lining, after bad losses big underdogs have been profitable the next week.
- Double-digit underdogs after a double-digit loss: 106-83-4 (56.1%) ATS
Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Panthers
It is hard to dominate a game the way Carolina did against Chicago and lose. The Panthers outgained the Bears 293-153, had the ball for more than 60% of the game and had four times as many first downs (20-5). Yet, the Bears found a way to win, thanks to two defensive touchdowns. Cam Newton led the Panthers inside the Bears 40-yard line six times and came away with just three points. That is unlikely to happen again.
- Underdogs after scoring 3 or fewer points: 84-62-5 (57.5%) ATS
Eagles (-13) vs. 49ers
Carson Wentz is the MVP favorite and the Eagles are an NFL-best 6-1. What could possibly go wrong against the hapless Niners? Sometimes, when it looks too easy, it is.
- Double-digit favorites vs. winless teams: 36-51 (41.4%) ATS
Saints (-9) vs. Bears
New Orleans has won four straight and are on top of the NFC South. Chicago is a surprising 3-4 but the Bears were lucky (the offense caught only two more balls than the defense) to beat the Panthers on Sunday. The Saints are big favorites at home and a majority of spread bets are backing Drew Brees and his high-powered offense. Is that the right play?
NFL Week 8: Saints vs. Bears
This Pro System is 120-68-4 (63.8%) ATS, +46.34 units since 2005
Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Broncos
Denver has now lost two straight including a 21-0 shellacking against the Los Angeles Chargers. More than 60% of spread bets were on the Broncos in both losses. Bettors have had enough. At the time of publication, more than 70% of spread tickets are on the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a great opportunity to fade the public.
- Contrarian underdogs (<50% of spread bets) after a blowout (20 or more points): 232-177-11 (56.7%) ATS