Week 8 in the NFL kicks off tonight. Before the Ravens and Dolphins slug it out in primetime, let’s evaluate a handful of prop bets based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season.
Super Bowl winner (BetOnline)
- New England Patriots +350
- Field -500
The defending champions started 2-2 but have since won three straight and are back in a familiar spot, 1st place in the AFC East. The much-maligned defense has allowed less than 13 points on average in the team’s last three games and Brady has the offense humming (195 points, 4th most in NFL). Now that the Pats look like the Pats, can New England repeat?
According to our numbers, Brady and Belichick have an 18.3% chance of winning a sixth Super Bowl (best in the league). At +350 odds (implied probability of 22.2%) there is no value on the Pats. Don’t rush to bet the “Field” either, there is no value at -500 odds (implied probability of 83.3%). Damn you, oddsmakers!
Most likely Super Bowl Matchup (5Dimes)
The most likely matchup, according to the bookmakers, is Patriots-Eagles (+1095). The least likely teams to show up on Super Sunday are the Browns-49ers (+999999). The bet you should place is Patriots-Seahawks (+1385). It hasn’t been the smoothest of starts for both franchises but New England and Seattle were the most likely Super Bowl matchup before the season began and after seven weeks nothing has changed.
NFC East Winner (5Dimes)
- Philadelphia Eagles -600
- Field +450
Winners of five straight, the Eagles (6-1) have the best record in the NFL. Philly has a 2.5 game lead over the Cowboys and Redskins in the NFC East. Even with a 79.2% chance of winning the division there is no value at -500 odds. Right now, it is hard to imagine another team taking the NFC East crown but at +450 odds there is value betting the Field. Which team could pull the upset? Dallas is just ahead of Philadelphia in our latest NFL Power Ratings.
Will the Browns go 0-16 (Bovada)
- Yes +1000
- No -5000
Cleveland is a mess. Hue Jackson is 1-22 as the head coach (6-17 ATS). The Browns have lost seven straight and still have a glaring hole at quarterback. Another wasted season has fans asking: is 0-16 possible? In 10,000 simulations, Cleveland goes winless 640 times (6.4%). To feel comfortable betting “Yes” (+1000) the Browns would need to go 0-16 about 10% of the time. Betting $5,000 to win $100 doesn’t sound appetizing and it shouldn’t, there is no value on “No” either.
Will the 49ers go 0-16? (Bovada)
- Yes +1000
- No -5000
The 49ers are bad, not Factory of Sadness bad, but there is a 3.3% chance San Francisco goes 0-16 in Kyle Shanahan’s first season. No value to be found on this prop bet.
Not a ton of value with these props but we got you covered. There are five games in Week 8 with Pro System picks.
NFL Pro Systems
All picks are 44-28 (61%) ATS in 2017