There is incredible power in understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios. Using Bet Labs massive database of proprietary sports betting information, you can easily build and explore data-driven betting systems.
Each week we will provide a betting trend for the most interesting NFL games. Some trends will be team specific and others situational. Our database goes back to 2003, the trends include all games in that time frame unless otherwise mentioned.
Buccaneers vs. Patriots (-5)
New England is 2-2, could easily be 1-3, and tied with the Jets for second in the AFC East. The 2017 season hasn’t started the way many Pats fans expected. Following another loss at home, can Tom Brady and Bill Belichick bounce back on a short week?
Tom Brady after a loss:
- All games: 30-10 (75.0%) ATS
- On the road: 20-3 (87.0%) ATS
Browns (-1.5) vs. Jets
When there is lopsided betting action on a game it is profitable to go against the public. The winless Browns are favored at home over the Jets (2-2). Currently, less than 25% of spread bets are on Cleveland.
- Teams getting <25% of spread bets in non-division games: 175-143 (55.0%) ATS
Rams (-1) vs. Seahawks
A quarter of the way through the 2017 season the Rams look like one of the best teams in the league. L.A. has scored the most points in the NFL and has started 3-1. Four games is a small sample and early in the season it has been profitable to fade non-playoff favorites against playoff teams from the previous season.
In first half of season, if a team that made the playoffs last year is an underdog against a team that didn’t make the playoffs the year before: 104-80 (56.5%) ATS.
- In last 10 years: 77-52 (59.7%) ATS
Dolphins vs. Titans (-1)
After a solid road win against the Chargers in Week 2, Miami has looked dreadful scoring six points in back-to-back losses to the Jets and Saints. The Dolphins return to South Beach for their home opener against the Titans. Jay Cutler and the Fins will score eventually but will it be enough to cover against Tennessee?
- Home underdogs on a losing streak (2 games): 71-98 (42.0%) ATS
Bengals (-3) vs. Bills: Total 39
The 1-3 Bengals are coming off their first win of the season over the Browns and are favored against the 3-1 Bills who had an impressive victory against the Falcons. The UNDER is a combined 6-2 when Cincinnati and Buffalo have played this year. Few points are expected on Sunday, should you bet the Over or Under?
- Total less than 40 points, <50% of bets on Under, OVER is 287-237 (54.8%)
Texans vs. Chiefs (pick’em)
Sunday Night Football is must watch tv. The Chiefs are the NFL’s last unbeaten team and the Texans look like a real threat in the AFC with rookie Deshaun Watson playing quarterback. In this potential playoff preview, the majority of bets and spread dollars are on Kansas City, is that the right side?
Week 5: Texans vs. Chiefs
This Pro System is 264-201 (56.8%) ATS since 2005