Two weeks into the season and eight teams are a perfect 2-0 but only a pair are worth betting to win the Super Bowl.
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the title at BetOnline and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Super Bowl based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season. For example, the undefeated Lions are +3300 to win the team’s first championship. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Detroit they would need to win the Super Bowl 2.9% (which is 100/(100+3300)) of the time. Matthew Stafford is projected to lift the Lombardi Trophy 1.7% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +3300 odds.
Here are a few teams with value.
Current odds: +800, Implied Probability: 11.1%
Steelers win Super Bowl 14.7% of the time
The Steelers are 2-0 and haven’t played their best football. That is a scary thought for the rest of the league. Pittsburgh has the second-best chance to win the Super Bowl behind New England. The Killer B’s have the inside track for a first round bye (50.6%) and home field advantage (30.5%) after the Pats lost at home in Week 1. Plus, the Steelers get Brady and Belichick at Heinz Field in Week 15. The road to the Super Bowl in the AFC currently goes through Pittsburgh.
Week 3: Bears vs. Steelers
This Pro System is 138-89 (61%) ATS since 2003
Current odds: +2500, Implied Probability: 3.8%
Panthers win Super Bowl 5.4% of the time
Cam Newton and the offense (22nd in DVOA) are struggling but the defense has picked up the slack allowing just six points in two games. Before the season began we projected Carolina to bounce back, after a fast start the Panthers have a 68.6% chance of reaching the postseason. There is value on Cam and the Panthers as longshots just two years removed from their last Super Bowl appearance.
Other teams with value: Patriots (+350) and Seahawks (+1000)
2017 Super Bowl odds and win probabilities
|New England Patriots||+350||22.43|
|Green Bay Packers||+800||8.09|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+1200||4.06|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2500||1.13|
|New York Giants||+3300||0.32|
|New Orleans Saints||+10000||0.24|
|Los Angeles Rams||+10000||0.19|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+10000||0.09|
|New York Jets||+100000||0|
|San Francisco 49ers||+50000||0|