After eight weeks, the Eagles (7-1) own the NFL’s best record. Before the season began, we projected Philly to finish 8-8 with a 31.5% chance of reaching the postseason. The development of franchise quarterback Carson Wentz has changed the outlook for the Eagles. Wentz is tied with Deshaun Watson for the league lead in touchdown passes (19), is 3rd in total QBR and is a favorite to win the MVP.
Midway through the season, Philadelphia is a favorite to win the NFC East (84.1%), has the second-best odds to make the playoffs (95.9%) and the team’s Super Bowl probability has increased from 1.0% to 12.1%. However, as Travis Reed notes in our NFL Power Ratings the Eagles have played an easy schedule. The one time they played an elite team they lost (at Kansas City Week 2). The Eagles are good but haven’t shown enough to be favored over the league’s elite teams at this point.
Sportsbook.ag gives the Patriots (+400) and Steelers (+550) better odds to win the Super Bowl. At this point in the season, by our numbers, the Seahawks should also have better odds to win the title. New England (18.5%), Pittsburgh (16.2%), Seattle (14.4%) and Philadelphia (12.1%) are the only teams with double-digit odds of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles are the only team with seven wins but aren’t the best in the NFL, yet.
Here is everything else you need to know after Week 8. Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.
Buffalo Bills (+24.6% increase in playoff probability): Are the Bills for real? After soundly beating Oakland, Buffalo is 5-2 and on pace to reach the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Buffalo defense has been stellar (8th in DVOA) forcing 17 takeaways, tied with Baltimore for best in the league.
Baltimore Ravens (+19.7% increase in playoff probability): Baltimore is 1.5 games behind Pittsburgh in the AFC North, nothing is decided for certain but we give the Steelers a 90.1% chance of winning the division. If the Ravens are to make the playoffs it will be as a Wild Card team. Joe Flacco is expected to start Sunday after a vicious hit knocked him out of a 40-0 win over Miami on Thursday. Like the Bills, the Ravens are built on defense (18.5 ppg, 6th in NFL), a little help from Flacco (21.3 ppg, 17th in NFL) would make them a dangerous team.
Miami Dolphins (-17.2% decrease in playoff probability): After a disappointing showing against the Ravens, Miami traded running back Jay Ajayi to Philly. The Dolphins were last in the league in total offense (252.4 yards/game) and points (13.1). Miami is one of the least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs.
Detroit Lions (-14.2% decrease in playoff probability): Matthew Stafford threw for 423 yards against Pittsburgh but failed to find the end zone in a 20-15 loss. A win by Minnesota dropped the Lions’ chance of winning the division to 14.0% and victories by the Panthers, Falcons and Cowboys push Detroit further down the list in the Wild Card chase.
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Steelers 96.8%
- Patriots 94.9%
- Chiefs 90.5%
- Jaguars 75.0%
- Bills 67.7%
- Ravens 50.5%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Eagles 95.9%
- Seahawks 90.5%
- Vikings 83.9%
- Saints 72.8%
- Rams 54.2%
- Panthers 53.1%
Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (8.0%), Packers (16.2%), Titans (38.8%)
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Broncos (18.5%), Lions (24.2%), Texans (33.7%)
No. 1 Pick
- Browns 54.5%
- 49ers 38.2%
- Colts 4.2%
- Giants 2.0%
The San Francisco 49ers traded a second-round pick for New England Patriots quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. According to oddsmakers, Jimmy G is worth about a point to the spread. The Niners (0-8) remain in the race for the first pick in the draft but Cleveland is the favorite (54.5% likely, up from 53.6% last week).
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Division Winner %||Make Playoffs %||Win Super Bowl %|
|New England Patriots||77.28||94.89||18.47|
|Kansas City Chiefs||85.59||90.5||8.64|
|New Orleans Saints||48.68||72.78||4.7|
|Los Angeles Rams||21.11||54.24||1.74|
|Green Bay Packers||8.61||16.24||0.09|
|Los Angeles Chargers||2.61||6.61||0.09|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||1.64||4.17||0.09|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0||0|
|New York Giants||0.02||0.19||0|
|New York Jets||0.01||0.75||0|