The NFL is full of imperfect teams. Philly has the best record at 6-1 and the Browns and Niners are winless but the rest of the league is hovering around .500. With so much mediocrity, which teams standout?

There not even close to the 2007 version but the Patriots remain the best team in our simulations. The defense, which looked terrible early in the year, has allowed just 38 points combined over their last three games. New England has a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs and are the Super Bowl favorites (18.3% chance).

Behind the Pats in Super Bowl probabilities are the Seahawks (17.0%) and Steelers (16.5%). Seattle is still struggling on offense but the defense remains one of the best units in the NFL. Pittsburgh’s offense is clicking once again with the reemergence of Le’Veon Bell (over 130 yards rushing in 3 of his last 4 games).

Philly and Kansas City are contenders in their respective conferences. The Eagles and Chiefs, along with the Pats, Seahawks and Steelers, are the only teams with better than an 80% chance of making the playoffs.

Here is everything else you need to know after Week 7.

Biggest Winners

Los Angeles Rams (+20.5% increase in playoff probability): Here comes the Rams. L.A. is 5-2 and has the best point differential in football. Sean McVay’s team looked dominant against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 and are now part of our most likely playoff.

New Orleans Saints (+16.3% increase in playoff probability): After an 0-2 start the Saints had just a 10.7% chance of making the playoffs. Four wins later they are the favorites to win the division and have a 69.7% chance of reaching the postseason after finishing three straight years with a 7-9 record.

Biggest Losers

Carolina Panthers (23.9% decrease in playoff probability): The Panthers outplayed the Bears but lost anyways. Back-to-back losses, plus the resurgence of the Saints, has knocked Carolina out of our most likely playoff. At least there is value on Cam Newton and crew after a bad offensive game.

Denver Broncos (17.9% decrease in playoff probability): The offense that hurts the Broncos defense the most is its own. The Trevor Siemian-led offense hasn’t topped 16 points in four straight games, as a result the team has lost 3 of 4. Denver has fallen to No. 23 in our Power Ratings.

Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Steelers 95.9%
  • Patriots 91.5%
  • Chiefs 87.7%
  • Jaguars 75.9%
  • Texans 43.2%
  • Bills 43.1%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Eagles 94.2%
  • Seahawks 91.4%
  • Vikings 77.1%
  • Saints 69.7%
  • Rams 59.0%
  • Falcons 42.3%

Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Packers (18.3%), Dolphins (25.1%), Panthers (34.4%)

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Bucs (12.6%), Raiders (18.4%), Ravens (30.8%)

No. 1 Pick

  • Browns 53.6%
  • 49ers 36.4%
  • Colts 5.6%
  • Giants 2.9%

USC quarterback Sam Darnold is no longer the favorite to be the first pick in the 2018 draft. Josh “Chosen” Rosen is expected to come off the board first. I think the Browns and Jets would be happy to have either.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision Winner%Make Playoffs%Win Super Bowl%
New England Patriots79.7791.4618.29
Seattle Seahawks77.2391.3916.97
Pittsburgh Steelers91.5495.9716.53
Philadelphia Eagles82.9494.1710.3
Kansas City Chiefs80.3287.749.41
New Orleans Saints52.2869.694.36
Jacksonville Jaguars53.8675.94.27
Minnesota Vikings64.2177.054.16
Dallas Cowboys14.6539.672.5
Atlanta Falcons22.9842.282.47
Los Angeles Rams22.2559.012.1
Houston Texans23.0443.221.46
Tennessee Titans23.0341.981.09
Buffalo Bills14.5243.091.07
Carolina Panthers18.1734.41.02
Detroit Lions23.8638.40.97
Oakland Raiders6.1418.40.51
Baltimore Ravens6.2730.760.49
Denver Broncos9.3320.510.42
Washington Redskins2.317.380.42
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.5712.590.32
Miami Dolphins5.5525.130.31
Cincinnati Bengals2.1911.920.19
Los Angeles Chargers4.2111.830.19
Green Bay Packers9.7218.290.13
Chicago Bears2.214.090.02
New York Jets0.161.910.01
Arizona Cardinals0.521.170.01
New York Giants0.110.420.01
Indianapolis Colts0.070.180
Cleveland Browns000
San Francisco 49ers000