One broken collarbone has changed the entire NFL landscape. What impact does Aaron Rodgers injury have on the rest of the season? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.
Rodgers injury has little effect on the AFC. Kansas City, New England and Pittsburgh remain the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. However, in the NFC, with Brett Hundley leading the Cheeseheads, the Eagles (5-1) are now the most likely team to get a first round bye and home field advantage. Philly’s championship odds have increased 79%, thanks Anthony Barr!
The Packers are clearly the biggest losers after Week 6 but what teams gained the most in a wild weekend where underdogs went 11-3 ATS?
Minnesota Vikings (+31.9% increase in playoff probability): The Vikings defeated the Packers 23-10 and are now in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North (49.6% chance). Assuming Green Bay collapses, the only road block is the Lions, who beat Minnesota in Week 4.
New Orleans Saints (+21.5% increase in playoff probability): That’s three straight wins for Drew Brees and the Saints. New Orleans dropped 52 points on the Lions in Week 6. After three consecutive 7-9 seasons, the Saints have better than a 50% chance of making the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers (51.6% decrease in playoff probability): Green Bay went from playoff lock to longshot. Brett Hundley (1 touchdown, 3 INTs) will need to play better than he did on Sunday to give the Packers any chance of reaching the postseason. On average, without Rodgers, Green Bay wins 4.53 more games this season.
Atlanta Falcons (16.9% decrease in playoff probability): The Dolphins upset of Atlanta was the biggest in 2017 and handed the Falcons a second straight loss. Matt Ryan and the Dirty Birds are still in our most likely playoff but go from division champs to wild card contender.
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Chiefs 93.2%
- Patriots 90.4%
- Steelers 88.8%
- Jaguars 60.0%
- Texans 43.5%
- Bills 41.1%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Eagles 90.4%
- Seahawks 80.9%
- Vikings 66.6%
- Panthers 58.3%
- Saints 53.4%
- Falcons 52.5%
Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (17.2%), Redskins 27.8% and Rams 38.6%
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Cowboys 25.0%, Bengals 25.0% and Bucs 14.5%
No. 1 Pick
- Browns 54.7%
- 49ers 33.6%
- Giants 3.2%
- Bears 2.8%
- Colts 1.7%
It’s a race between two winless teams for the first pick in the draft. Cleveland is the favorite but all it takes is one win to swing the odds. The G-Men are longshots after pulling a massive upset in Denver on Sunday night.
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Division Winner%||Make Playoffs%||Win Super Bowl%|
|New England Patriots||78.2||89.1||16.81|
|Kansas City Chiefs||82.86||93.22||14.38|
|New Orleans Saints||31.35||53.39||3.03|
|Los Angeles Rams||20.45||38.56||1.43|
|Green Bay Packers||20.96||36.03||0.77|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||6.54||14.51||0.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||1.05||6.12||0.12|
|New York Giants||0.56||1.86||0.02|
|New York Jets||0.88||4.87||0.02|
|San Francisco 49ers||0||0.01||0|