More than a month into the NFL season what do we know for sure? The Chiefs are good and the Browns are bad. Sure, that’s easy but what about the rest of the league? If the postseason started today the Bills would be the 2-seed in the AFC and the Eagles would get home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Five games aren’t enough of a sample to draw meaningful conclusions but what impact have these early results had on the playoff picture? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.

Kansas City is undefeated but New England (3-2), a team the Chiefs have already beat, are more likely to win the Super Bowl. The Pats are still the No. 1 team in our Power Ratings, which accounts for preseason expectations. New England was such a heavy favorite to repeat before Week 1 that Brady and Belichick can’t be written off after a slow start.

The good news for Chiefs fans. Right now Alex Smith and crew have the best chance to get a bye (67.7%) and home field advantage (49.4%) in the playoffs. The further we get into the season, if KC continues to play at a high level, the more likely the team will be to win the Super Bowl.

Biggest Winners

Jacksonville Jaguars (+29.2% increase in playoff probability): A stunning win over the Steelers coupled with losses by the Texans and Titans has made the Jags the favorites in the AFC South. Jacksonville now has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the Cowboys, you read that correctly!

Baltimore Ravens (+25.8% increase in playoff probability): Pittsburgh’s loss is Baltimore’s gain. Not only did the Killer B’s stumble but the Ravens took care of business against a Derek Carr-less Raiders team. If the playoffs started today the Ravens would be in.

Biggest Losers

Houston Texans (24.0% decrease in playoff probability): Not only did Houston look outclassed by the Chiefs on Sunday night but the Texans lost three-time Defensive Player of the Year J.J. Watt for the season.

Dallas Cowboys (15.1% decrease in playoff probability): Dallas left too much time on the clock and Aaron Rodgers burned them scoring the game-winning touchdown with 11 seconds remaining. The Cowboys have a losing record a year after winning 13 games.

Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Chiefs 95.0%
  • Patriots 87.4%
  • Steelers 72.6%
  • Jaguars 71.3%
  • Broncos 52.5%
  • Ravens 52.3%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Packers 86.7%
  • Seahawks 85.5%
  • Eagles 78.2%
  • Falcons 69.4%
  • Panthers 69.2%
  • Lions 37.5%

Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Rams (24.0%) and Vikings (34.7%)

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Texans (31.0%) and Cowboys (27.6%)

No. 1 Pick

  • Browns 45.7%
  • 49ers 27.4%
  • Giants 9.5%
  • Bears 9.4%
  • Chargers 3.0%

Cleveland is the most likely team to get the No. 1 pick after starting 0-5. The Jets were among the favorites to tank for the first pick before the season began. New York is 3-2 and has only a 0.5% chance of having the first pick. Even when the Jets try to be bad they fail.

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision Winner%Make Playoffs%Win Super Bowl%
New England Patriots78.1187.3817.04
Kansas City Chiefs78.795.0414.88
Green Bay Packers72.5286.713.28
Seattle Seahawks81.2985.4711.14
Pittsburgh Steelers59.2872.647.44
Philadelphia Eagles68.0378.196.15
Atlanta Falcons38.2869.376.06
Carolina Panthers41.5269.234.71
Jacksonville Jaguars59.2371.323.32
Denver Broncos16.3352.482.25
Baltimore Ravens29.5652.31.94
Dallas Cowboys17.9227.591.56
Detroit Lions15.7937.531.37
Oakland Raiders4.7727.331.25
New Orleans Saints13.0731.911.23
Buffalo Bills17.9438.831.13
Minnesota Vikings11.6334.731.11
Houston Texans20.0631.021.03
Washington Redskins13.826.40.66
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.1319.230.66
Cincinnati Bengals11.1422.790.6
Tennessee Titans15.2623.320.51
Los Angeles Rams12.6823.970.38
Arizona Cardinals5.998.850.13
Miami Dolphins2.146.870.06
Los Angeles Chargers0.22.270.05
Indianapolis Colts5.4510.420.02
New York Giants0.250.50.02
New York Jets1.815.960.02
Chicago Bears0.060.270
Cleveland Browns0.020.030
San Francisco 49ers0.040.060