Raise your hand if you projected the Patriots and Jets to have the same record after four games. No one? At the quarter point in the season the standings look strange. The Bills, Jags, Lions, Panthers and Rams are all surprisingly at the top of their respective divisions. It is important to not overreact to a small sample but what impact have these early results had on the playoff picture? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.
Kansas City is the only undefeated team remaining in football but the Chiefs aren’t the most likely Super Bowl champions. Pittsburgh has wrestled the top spot from New England (our preseason favorites). The Steelers have an 18.2% probability of capturing their seventh title. The Killer B’s are the most likely team to get a first round bye and home field advantage in the AFC.
Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have now lost two games at home and have seen their championship probability drop from 32.8% before the season began to 13.1%.
The Chiefs have been impressive (best point differential in NFL) through four games. KC’s title chances have improved from 2.2% to 10.9%. The AFC has a 54.9% chance to win the Super Bowl.
The biggest winner from Week 4 was the Texans. With Deshaun Watson at quarterback Houston looks like a legitimate playoff team. The two-time reigning AFC South champ stomped Tennessee 57-14 on Sunday improving the team’s playoff chances from 20.7% to 55.1%.
Speaking of the Titans, Tennessee was the biggest loser from last week (playoff probability decreased from 64.5% to 38.6%). Marcus Mariota pulled his hamstring in the disappointing showing against Houston and could miss time. Before the season began the Titans were the most likely division winner but the team now has a 27.5% chance of winning the AFC South.
2017 NFL Pro Systems
All picks are 25-15, +8.42 units
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Steelers 92.6%
- Chiefs 87.8%
- Patriots 80.0%
- Broncos 58.1%
- Texans 55.1%
- Bills 54.7%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Packers 76.3%
- Seahawks 76.3%
- Falcons 69.1%
- Eagles 62.4%
- Lions 56.3%
- Panthers 54.1%
Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Bucs (25.4%) and Rams (31.5%),
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Bengals (14.1%) and Dolphins (3.8%)
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Division Winner%||Make Playoffs%||Win Super Bowl%|
|New England Patriots||66.13||79.97||13.05|
|Kansas City Chiefs||66.44||87.76||10.99|
|Green Bay Packers||58.5||76.31||10.87|
|New Orleans Saints||15.54||33.21||1.53|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||11.86||25.39||0.86|
|Los Angeles Rams||21.83||31.54||0.69|
|New York Jets||1.28||2.99||0.01|
|New York Giants||1.21||1.92||0.01|
|Los Angeles Chargers||0.13||1.07||0.01|
|San Francisco 49ers||0.06||0.11||0|