Raise your hand if you projected the Patriots and Jets to have the same record after four games. No one? At the quarter point in the season the standings look strange. The Bills, Jags, Lions, Panthers and Rams are all surprisingly at the top of their respective divisions. It is important to not overreact to a small sample but what impact have these early results had on the playoff picture? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.

Kansas City is the only undefeated team remaining in football but the Chiefs aren’t the most likely Super Bowl champions. Pittsburgh has wrestled the top spot from New England (our preseason favorites). The Steelers have an 18.2% probability of capturing their seventh title. The Killer B’s are the most likely team to get a first round bye and home field advantage in the AFC.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have now lost two games at home and have seen their championship probability drop from 32.8% before the season began to 13.1%.

The Chiefs have been impressive (best point differential in NFL) through four games. KC’s title chances have improved from 2.2% to 10.9%. The AFC has a 54.9% chance to win the Super Bowl.

The biggest winner from Week 4 was the Texans. With Deshaun Watson at quarterback Houston looks like a legitimate playoff team. The two-time reigning AFC South champ stomped Tennessee 57-14 on Sunday improving the team’s playoff chances from 20.7% to 55.1%.

Speaking of the Titans, Tennessee was the biggest loser from last week (playoff probability decreased from 64.5% to 38.6%). Marcus Mariota pulled his hamstring in the disappointing showing against Houston and could miss time. Before the season began the Titans were the most likely division winner but the team now has a 27.5% chance of winning the AFC South.

2017 NFL Pro Systems

All picks are 25-15, +8.42 units

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Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Steelers 92.6%
  • Chiefs 87.8%
  • Patriots 80.0%
  • Broncos 58.1%
  • Texans 55.1%
  • Bills 54.7%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Packers 76.3%
  • Seahawks 76.3%
  • Falcons 69.1%
  • Eagles 62.4%
  • Lions 56.3%
  • Panthers 54.1%

Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Bucs (25.4%) and Rams (31.5%),

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Bengals (14.1%) and Dolphins (3.8%)

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision Winner%Make Playoffs%Win Super Bowl%
Pittsburgh Steelers87.4492.6218.23
New England Patriots66.1379.9713.05
Kansas City Chiefs66.4487.7610.99
Green Bay Packers58.576.3110.87
Seattle Seahawks64.9972.629.45
Atlanta Falcons42.3969.136.79
Philadelphia Eagles50.7262.423.29
Dallas Cowboys3344.553.19
Detroit Lions31.1356.33.17
Carolina Panthers30.2254.123
Denver Broncos23.4158.072.72
Houston Texans42.0555.062.56
Oakland Raiders10.0340.522.4
Buffalo Bills31.2454.671.83
New Orleans Saints15.5433.211.53
Jacksonville Jaguars29.2542.161.08
Tennessee Titans27.5438.631.03
Minnesota Vikings10.1527.460.93
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.8625.390.86
Washington Redskins15.0826.060.83
Los Angeles Rams21.8331.540.69
Baltimore Ravens7.926.510.58
Arizona Cardinals13.1318.230.46
Cincinnati Bengals4.6614.10.42
Miami Dolphins1.363.810.02
New York Jets1.282.990.01
Indianapolis Colts1.172.030.01
New York Giants1.211.920.01
Los Angeles Chargers0.131.070.01
Chicago Bears0.230.690
San Francisco 49ers0.060.110
Cleveland Browns0.010.090