Week 3 in the NFL will be remembered for surprising upsets and unforgettable finishes. What impact did the wild weekend in football have on the playoff picture? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.

The rest of the league is catching up to the Patriots. Before the season began New England was 32.8% likely to win the Super Bowl. Brady and Belichick’s odds of repeating have fallen to 19.9% after three games. Two factors are impacting the Pats chances of winning the title: the team’s probability of getting home field advantage in the playoffs has decreased thanks to the Week 1 loss against Kansas City and while the team is a heavy favorite to win the AFC East for a ninth straight year it’s no lock (95.9% preseason, 84.5% after Week 3).


Week 4: Patriots vs. Panthers

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Kansas City and Atlanta are the only undefeated teams in football. At 3-0, each squad has seen significant increases in their Super Bowl win probability. The Chiefs jumped from 2.2% before Week 1 to 9.2% after three straight wins. Matt Ryan and the Falcons narrowly escaped with a victory in Detroit but the strong start to the season has Atlanta at a 23.4% chance of returning to the Super Bowl (best in NFC) and a 11.4% chance of revenging their loss to the Pats.

The biggest winner from Week 3 was the Jaguars. Blake Bortles threw four touchdown passes to help beat the Ravens 44-7 in London. The defense forced two turnovers and sacked Joe Flacco twice. Jacksonville’s odds of making the playoffs increased from 22.6% to 54.2%. Before you call us crazy, remember this team plays in a weak division and now holds a tiebreaker over Baltimore, a potential Wild Card team.

Carolina lost the most in Week 3. The Panthers were dominated by a winless Saints team. The defense had only allowed six points in its previous two games before giving up 34 to New Orleans. The team’s playoff probability decreased from 68.6% to 40.9%.

Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Patriots 91.2%
  • Chiefs 84.2%
  • Steelers 82.7%
  • Titans 64.5%
  • Raiders 64.4%
  • Jaguars 54.2%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Falcons 84.1%
  • Packers 69.0%
  • Seahawks 67.8%
  • Cowboys 67.5%
  • Eagles 52.2%
  • Vikings 47.1%

Least likely teams with a winning record to make the playoffs: Rams (23.4%), Bills (31.8%), Redskins (33.4%)

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Seahawks (67.8%), Saints (22.2%), Cardinals (21.5%)

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision WinnerMake PlayoffsWin Super Bowl
New England Patriots84.5191.2219.88
Pittsburgh Steelers72.6382.7412.38
Atlanta Falcons66.0584.0511.36
Kansas City Chiefs57.5884.199.16
Green Bay Packers51.8969.047.66
Dallas Cowboys49.2267.487.19
Seattle Seahawks62.8867.835.84
Oakland Raiders28.5464.434.86
Tennessee Titans51.3864.512.98
Philadelphia Eagles32.1352.152.8
Minnesota Vikings25.2947.112.36
Carolina Panthers16.5540.952.19
Detroit Lions21.7640.881.61
Baltimore Ravens24.8543.791.5
Jacksonville Jaguars33.554.191.47
Denver Broncos13.5236.71.44
Washington Redskins16.9333.361.31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.9223.330.93
Buffalo Bills12.531.830.7
New Orleans Saints8.4922.20.67
Arizona Cardinals17.5321.450.53
Los Angeles Rams19.0623.350.41
Houston Texans11.1820.690.38
Miami Dolphins2.618.960.16
Cincinnati Bengals2.375.350.11
Indianapolis Colts3.958.080.05
New York Giants1.733.890.05
Los Angeles Chargers0.371.690.02
Chicago Bears1.072.330.01
New York Jets0.391.170
Cleveland Browns0.160.520
San Francisco 49ers0.540.660