What did we learn in Week 2 of the NFL? The Patriots bounced back (the Brady/Belichick era isn’t over), the Falcons look ready to make another run at the Super Bowl, Blake Bortles (3 turnovers) is bad, Derek Carr (3 TDs) is good, and two of last year’s best teams (Seattle and Dallas) are struggling. After two games how has the playoff picture changed? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.
New England easily beat the Saints in New Orleans. Tom Brady threw for 447 yards and three touchdowns a week after failing to score. The Patriots are the most likely Super Bowl champions (22.4%) but the team’s title odds continue to sink (25.6% Week 1, 32.8% preseason). The main reason the team’s chances of repeating have dropped is that the Pats probability of getting home field advantage and a first round bye have decreased.
The biggest winner from Week 2 was the Lions. Detroit is a surprise 2-0 after beating the New York Giants 24-10 on Monday Night Football. Matthew Stafford and crew sit atop the NFC North and have seen their playoff probability nearly double (48.7% from 27.3%).
Cincinnati was the biggest loser after dropping a winnable game against Houston on Thursday night. The Bengals are 0-2 and have just a 1.8% chance of winning the AFC North. Andy Dalton’s team has a 8.2% chance to make the playoffs (down from 25.3% after Week 1).
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All Football Pro System picks: +22.97 units in 2017
Most likely AFC Playoff teams:
- Patriots 91.9%
- Steelers 88.9%
- Raiders 72.5%
- Ravens 67.0%
- Chiefs 65.5%
- Titans 55.9%
Most likely NFC Playoff teams:
- Seahawks 78.3%
- Falcons 72.6%
- Packers 70.6%
- Panthers 68.6%
- Cowboys 62.5%
- Lions 48.7%
Least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (21.3%)
Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Giants (13.5%)
Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.
|Team||Division Winner||Make Playoffs||Win Super Bowl|
|New England Patriots||86.75||91.9||22.43|
|Green Bay Packers||54.29||70.57||8.09|
|Kansas City Chiefs||34.62||65.51||4.06|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||13.06||33.65||1.13|
|New York Giants||8.28||13.46||0.32|
|Los Angeles Rams||7.42||12.12||0.19|
|New Orleans Saints||3.69||10.66||0.24|
|Los Angeles Chargers||1.57||5.9||0.09|
|San Francisco 49ers||0.52||0.86||0|
|New York Jets||0.13||0.44||0|