What did we learn in Week 2 of the NFL? The Patriots bounced back (the Brady/Belichick era isn’t over), the Falcons look ready to make another run at the Super Bowl, Blake Bortles (3 turnovers) is bad, Derek Carr (3 TDs) is good, and two of last year’s best teams (Seattle and Dallas) are struggling. After two games how has the playoff picture changed? We simulated the season 10,000 times to find out.

New England easily beat the Saints in New Orleans. Tom Brady threw for 447 yards and three touchdowns a week after failing to score. The Patriots are the most likely Super Bowl champions (22.4%) but the team’s title odds continue to sink (25.6% Week 1, 32.8% preseason). The main reason the team’s chances of repeating have dropped is that the Pats probability of getting home field advantage and a first round bye have decreased.

The biggest winner from Week 2 was the Lions. Detroit is a surprise 2-0 after beating the New York Giants 24-10 on Monday Night Football. Matthew Stafford and crew sit atop the NFC North and have seen their playoff probability nearly double (48.7% from 27.3%).

Cincinnati was the biggest loser after dropping a winnable game against Houston on Thursday night. The Bengals are 0-2 and have just a 1.8% chance of winning the AFC North. Andy Dalton’s team has a 8.2% chance to make the playoffs (down from 25.3% after Week 1).


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Most likely AFC Playoff teams:

  • Patriots 91.9%
  • Steelers 88.9%
  • Raiders 72.5%
  • Ravens 67.0%
  • Chiefs 65.5%
  • Titans 55.9%

Most likely NFC Playoff teams:

  • Seahawks 78.3%
  • Falcons 72.6%
  • Packers 70.6%
  • Panthers 68.6%
  • Cowboys 62.5%
  • Lions 48.7%

Least likely team with a winning record to make the playoffs: Dolphins (21.3%)

Most likely team with a losing record to make the playoffs: Giants (13.5%)

Below are the updated playoff probabilities for every NFL team.

TeamDivision WinnerMake PlayoffsWin Super Bowl
New England Patriots86.7591.922.43
Pittsburgh Steelers68.8388.9314.7
Seattle Seahawks70.5778.289.8
Atlanta Falcons43.9172.557.59
Oakland Raiders44.8972.516.52
Green Bay Packers54.2970.578.09
Carolina Panthers39.3568.625.39
Baltimore Ravens29.3667.023.55
Kansas City Chiefs34.6265.514.06
Dallas Cowboys51.8162.494.95
Tennessee Titans50.6755.872.17
Detroit Lions28.348.661.68
Denver Broncos18.9342.671.4
Philadelphia Eagles27.1439.461.36
Tampa Bay Buccaneers13.0633.651.13
Arizona Cardinals21.533.240.89
Minnesota Vikings16.8632.551.07
Houston Texans25.0531.770.79
Jacksonville Jaguars16.5822.630.21
Washington Redskins12.7821.640.61
Miami Dolphins7.8921.280.32
Buffalo Bills5.2414.460.25
New York Giants8.2813.460.32
Los Angeles Rams7.4212.120.19
New Orleans Saints3.6910.660.24
Indianapolis Colts7.7110.410.11
Cincinnati Bengals1.768.150.1
Los Angeles Chargers1.575.90.09
Chicago Bears0.561.250
San Francisco 49ers0.520.860
Cleveland Browns0.060.610
New York Jets0.130.440