Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books. It is easy to overreact to one game but before you say the Brady/Belichick era is over, here is a look at our updated NFL simulations after the first game of the season.
Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.
In these simulations, we assume Andrew Luck will miss six weeks (there isn’t a definitive time table for his return). We will adjust when new information is available.
2017 NFL Pro Systems
NFL Picks are 5-1, +3.71 units to start the season
New England remains the favorites to win the Super Bowl but the Patriots chance of repeating fell from 32.8% to 25.6% (a 21.8% decrease).
Jacksonville, Kansas City and Baltimore, all road underdogs in Week 1 that won outright, saw their playoff probabilities increase by more than 10%.
After poor showings, the Bengals, Texans, Giants, Saints and Redskins chance of making the playoffs decreased by double-digits, all have less than a 30% chance of reaching the postseason.
2017 NFL Simulations (Week 1 Update)
|Team||Division Winner||Make Playoffs||Win Super Bowl|
|New England Patriots||91.48||95.25||25.64|
|Green Bay Packers||66.19||81.51||10.91|
|Kansas City Chiefs||35.65||61.22||3.81|
|New York Giants||13.55||28.26||0.78|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||11.85||25.03||0.69|
|Los Angeles Chargers||5.52||15.13||0.3|
|New Orleans Saints||8.59||18.34||0.27|
|Los Angeles Rams||7.02||12.86||0.13|
|San Francisco 49ers||0.88||1.48||0.01|
|New York Jets||0.27||0.96||0|