Week 1 of the NFL season is in the books. It is easy to overreact to one game but before you say the Brady/Belichick era is over, here is a look at our updated NFL simulations after the first game of the season.

Our projections are based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017-18 season using player and team statistics adjusted for strength of schedule.

In these simulations, we assume Andrew Luck will miss six weeks (there isn’t a definitive time table for his return). We will adjust when new information is available.


2017 NFL Pro Systems

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New England remains the favorites to win the Super Bowl but the Patriots chance of repeating fell from 32.8% to 25.6% (a 21.8% decrease).
 

Jacksonville, Kansas City and Baltimore, all road underdogs in Week 1 that won outright, saw their playoff probabilities increase by more than 10%.

After poor showings, the Bengals, Texans, Giants, Saints and Redskins chance of making the playoffs decreased by double-digits, all have less than a 30% chance of reaching the postseason.

2017 NFL Simulations (Week 1 Update)

TeamDivision WinnerMake PlayoffsWin Super Bowl
New England Patriots91.4895.2525.64
Pittsburgh Steelers65.1185.4312.35
Green Bay Packers66.1981.5110.91
Seattle Seahawks74.7681.8610.11
Dallas Cowboys57.4371.837.85
Oakland Raiders45.1968.835.93
Atlanta Falcons41.5961.655.26
Carolina Panthers37.9860.513.99
Kansas City Chiefs35.6561.223.81
Baltimore Ravens27.2359.852.61
Minnesota Vikings21.1944.311.72
Philadelphia Eagles23.5440.941.55
Tennessee Titans35.6941.821.11
Denver Broncos13.6530.530.92
Arizona Cardinals17.429.220.86
New York Giants13.5528.260.78
Detroit Lions11.8727.320.75
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.8525.030.69
Cincinnati Bengals7.525.250.55
Houston Texans16.2121.360.43
Buffalo Bills4.9317.060.42
Jacksonville Jaguars27.1435.030.41
Indianapolis Colts20.9727.920.32
Los Angeles Chargers5.5215.130.3
New Orleans Saints8.5918.340.27
Miami Dolphins3.3313.320.21
Los Angeles Rams7.0212.860.13
Washington Redskins5.4912.770.08
Chicago Bears0.762.170.03
Cleveland Browns0.171.10.01
San Francisco 49ers0.881.480.01
New York Jets0.270.960