We have analyzed Super Bowl and playoff futures for the 2017 season. Now we look at win totals for every NFL team to determine Over/Under value bets.

To determine if a team has value we look at their current win total at Bovada and compare that to our projected odds they win more or less games. For example, New England’s win total is listed at 12.5, Under +100. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Patriots Under they would need to win 12 or fewer games 50.0% (which is 100/(100+100)) of the time. The Pats are projected to win 12 or fewer games 52.3% of the time, meaning there is slight value in placing a bet at +100 odds.

New York Jets – OVER 4.5

Current odds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.5%

Jets go OVER win total 61.4% of the time

Gang Green has the lowest win total in football, the longest odds to win the Super Bowl and Todd Bowles is the most likely coach to be fired first. Not much is expected of the Jets but according to our simulations, the teams most likely record is 5-11 with New York winning 6 or more games 50.3% of the time.


Week 1: Bills vs. Jets

This Pro System is 56% ATS, +64.6 units since 2005

Which side should you bet?


Jacksonville Jaguars – OVER 6

Current odds: -165, Implied Probability: 62.3%

Jags go OVER win total 67.3% of the time

Jacksonville has won five or fewer games for six straight years. The last time the team had a winning season or made the playoffs was in 2007. It has been hard to be a Jaguars fan. While we don’t see a playoff run in the cards this year there is value betting the OVER. With an improving defense and a young quarterback (Blake Bortles) our simulations have the Jags finishing 7-9 or better almost 70% of the time.

Other OVER bets with value: Bears 5.5 (+135), Rams (5.5 (-110), Seahawks 10.5 (-115)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – UNDER 8.5

Current odds: +100, Implied Probability: 50.0%

Bucs go UNDER win total 69.1% of the time

The betting market is high on Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston is expected to take another step forward in his third year and the team added offensive weapons in DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard in the offseason. We see the Bucs regressing after a 9-7 season to finish in the bottom of the NFC South for a fourth time in five years.

Denver Broncos – UNDER 8.5

Current odds: -125, Implied Probability: 55.5%

Broncos go UNDER win total 69.8% of the time

The Broncos have a championship caliber defense but below average quarterback play. Coupled with playing in the AFC West, the toughest division in football, it will be difficult for Denver to match or exceed its 9-win season from 2016. The Broncos win 8 or fewer games almost 70% of the time.

Other UNDER bets with value: Packers 10 (+145), Texans 8.5 (-105), Dolphins 7.5 (-105), Giants 9 (-115), Raiders 10 (-125)

TeamOverUnderProject Over%
Arizona Cardinals8 (-140)8 (+110)56.4
Atlanta Falcons9.5 (-130)9.5 (+110)44.6
Baltimore Ravens9 (+100)9 (-130)45.6
Buffalo Bills6 (-150)6 (+120)62.2
Carolina Panthers8.5 (-175)8.5 (+145)60.5
Chicago Bears5.5 (+135)5.5 (-165)49.2
Cincinnati Bengals8.5 (-105)8.5 (-125)49.3
Cleveland Browns4.5 (-115)4.5 (-115)50.5
Dallas Cowboys9.5 (-125)9.5 (-105)49.6
Denver Broncos8.5 (-105)8.5 (-125)30.2
Detroit Lions8 (+120)8 (-150)37.5
Green Bay Packers10 (-175)10 (+145)53.1
Houston Texans8.5 (-125)8.5 (-105)38.7
Indianapolis Colts9 (+110)9 (-140)38.2
Jacksonville Jaguars6 (-165)6 (+135)67.3
Kansas City Chiefs9 (-130)9 (+100)43.6
Los Angeles Chargers7.5 (-125)7.5 (-105)46.7
Los Angeles Rams5.5 (-110)5.5 (-140)58.5
Miami Dolphins7.5 (-125)7.5 (-105)35.8
Minnesota Vikings8.5 (-125)8.5 (-105)45.1
New England Patriots12.5 (-130)12.5 (+100)47.7
New Orleans Saints8 (-125)8 (-105)48.2
New York Giants9 (-115)9 (-115)38.1
New York Jets4.5 (+160)4.5 (-200)61.4
Oakland Raiders10 (-105)10 (-125)34.9
Philadelphia Eagles8 (-130)8 (+110)48.4
Pittsburgh Steelers10.5 (-125)10.5 (-105)52.0
San Francisco 49ers4.5 (-150)4.5 (+120)62.1
Seattle Seahawks10.5 (-115)10.5 (-115)55.4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8.5 (-130)8.5 (+100)30.9
Tennessee Titans8.5 (-150)8.5 (+120)54.9
Washington Redskins7.5 (-130)7.5 (+100)47.0