Buffalo sits atop the AFC East, Jacksonville is in the running for the division title in the AFC South and the Los Angeles Rams look like the best team in the NFC West. Only two of last year’s division champs are in first place after four weeks. It has been a strange year. The odds have shifted, so have our simulations, which teams should you bet to win the division crowns?
To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the division at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected probability that they win the title based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season. For example, Green Bay is -250 to win the NFC North. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Packers they would need to take the division 71.4% (which is 250/(100+250)) of the time. The Cheeseheads are projected to best the NFC North 58.5% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at -250 odds.
Current odds: +450, Implied Probability: 18.2%
Bills win the AFC East 31.2% of the time
Buffalo probably won’t win the AFC East. The Patriots, despite being 2-2 and having a defense that is last in DVOA (allowed second most points to start the season), is the clear favorite in the division from a betting perspective and according to our simulations. Yet, the oddsmakers aren’t giving the Bills enough credit for their 3-1 start. Sean McDermott’s team isn’t tanking and will contend with the Pats for the division title.
Current odds: +400, Implied Probability: 20.0%
Lions win the NFC North 31.1% of the time
Was this a touchdown?
Golden Tate scores with :06 left, Lions up! pic.twitter.com/bAS52X3CwR
— LeadingNFL ™ (@LeadingNFL) September 24, 2017
Inches separate the Lions from being undefeated. Detroit’s chance of winning the division have increased from 12.0% before the season began to 31.1%. Like the Bills, bookmakers are undervaluing the Lions.
Current odds: -400, Implied Probability: 80.0%
Steelers win the AFC North 87.4% of the time
Pittsburgh’s offense is explosive but its built on the ground game. Le’Veon Bell reminded the Ravens of that fact by carrying the rock 35 times for 144 yards and two touchdowns. Baltimore is the only competition in the division this year and the Steelers already have a leg up with their decisive road win last Sunday.
Week 5: Steelers vs. Jaguars
This is NFL Pro System is 170-101 (62.7%) ATS since 2003
Other teams with value: Jaguars +350, Chiefs -150, Panthers +300 and Saints +800
NFL Division Odds and Probabilities
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