Green Bay is a Super Bowl contender with Aaron Rodgers healthy but the future Hall of Fame quarterback is sidelined, possibly for the season, leaving the NFC wide open. With one of the NFL’s best players out of the picture, which team will step up to win the NFC?

To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NFC at BetOnline and compare that to our projected odds that they win based on 10,000 simulations of the 2017 season. For example, Carolina is +1000 to win the conference. In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Panthers they would need to win the NFC 9.1% (which is 100/(100+1000)) of the time. Carolina is projected to win the conference 8.4% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +1000 odds.

Here are a few teams with value.

Seattle Seahawks

Current odds: +450, Implied Probability: 18.2%

Seahawks win NFC 24.3% of the time

Pete Carrol’s team is just 3-2 and sits behind the Rams (4-2) in the NFC North but our simulations give the Seahawks a 72.6% chance of winning the division (own tiebreaker over L.A). Russell Wilson and the offense have been inconsistent but the defense remains a strength (5th by DVOA against the pass). Seattle has a 36.9% chance of getting a bye in the playoffs and a 19.5% chance of earning home field advantage (5th best odds in the league).

Philadelphia Eagles

Current odds: +450, Implied Probability: 18.2%

Eagles win NFC 23.7% of the time

A balanced offense and stingy defense have propelled Philly to a 5-1 start. The Eagles are third in the league in total yards gained per game and are averaging 27.5 points (6th best) while the defense is allowing just 20.3 points (tied 9th). Philadelphia is a clear favorite to win its division and the team’s Super Bowl odds have improved from 1.0% to 11.0% after six games.

Minnesota Vikings

Current odds: +1000, Implied Probability: 9.1%

Vikings win NFC 10.1% of the time

No other team in the NFL is in a better spot to take advantage of Rodgers injury than the Vikings. Not only are the Packers neutralized but the Lions are struggling and the Bears are starting a rookie quarterback. If Minnesota doesn’t win the NFC North it would be a major disappointment. The Vikings aren’t as strong of a value bet as the Seahawks and Eagles but at +1000 crazier things have happened.

AFC teams with value to win conference: Steelers +500 and Jags +3300

2017 NFC and AFC Conference odds

TeamOddsProjected Chance %
New England Patriots+18027.6
Kansas City Chiefs+250 26
Seattle Seahawks+45024.3
Philadelphia Eagles+45023.7
Pittsburgh Steelers+50022.8
Minnesota Vikings+100010.1
Atlanta Falcons+7009.4
Carolina Panthers+10008.4
New Orleans Saints+12007.6
Jacksonville Jaguars+33005.5
Houston Texans+16004.2
Detroit Lions+16003.6
Dallas Cowboys+12003.3
Los Angeles Rams+16003.3
Buffalo Bills+33003.1
Denver Broncos+12002.8
Green Bay Packers+12002.3
Baltimore Ravens+33002.2
Tennessee Titans+16002.2
Washington Redskins+16002.2
Cincinnati Bengals+25001.7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+33001.2
Oakland Raiders+33001
Arizona Cardinals+33000.5
Miami Dolphins+33000.5
Los Angeles Chargers+40000.3
Chicago Bears+50000.1
Indianapolis Colts+50000.1
New York Jets+100000.1
Cleveland Browns+500000
New York Giants+40000
San Francisco 49ers+500000