The Cleveland Cavaliers exploded offensively in Game 4 as LeBron James recorded another triple-double and Kyrie Irving scored 40 points. The Cavs snapped the Golden State Warriors 15-game playoff winning streak and avoided being swept. The NBA Finals shifts back to Oakland for Game 5 on Monday. Here is the line movement and betting trends to know.
Golden State -8.5
The Warriors opened as 8.5-point favorites after losing by 21 points in Game 4. In early betting action more than 60% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars are on Golden State to cover. The line has moved to Warriors -9 at many books.
The Cavs scored a Finals record 49 points in the first quarter and record 86 points in the first half of Game 4. Cleveland also made a Finals record 24 3-pointers. Scoring came fast and easy as the teams combined for 253 points. The Game 5 total would be the largest over/under for an NBA playoff game in our database. At the time of publication 90% of dollars wagered are on the OVER.
2017 NBA Playoff Trends
- Favorites: 44-33 (57.1%) ATS, +8.9 units
- Road teams: 48-29 (62.3%) ATS, +17.0 units
- Teams getting 60% or more of spread bets: 27-10 (73.0%) ATS, +15.7 units
- OVER: 47-30 (61.0%), +15.2 units
- Cleveland is 13-4 straight-up and 9-7-1 ATS in 2017 playoffs
- In last two years, the Cavs are 3-12 ATS when getting less than 50% of spread dollars in the regular season but 6-3 ATS in the playoffs
- LeBron is 3-13 straight-up as a moneyline dog of +250 or greater in the playoffs. Cavs +324 in Game 5
- After a playoff win LeBron is 81-61 ATS in the next game, after a win by 10 or more points his teams are 41-40 ATS in the next game
- As a road underdog in the playoffs LeBron is 26-27 ATS
- Golden State is 15-1 straight-up and 11-5 ATS in 2017 playoffs
- Warriors have won 30 of last 32 games (23-9 ATS)
- Favorites against LeBron in the NBA Finals are 17-9 ATS
- Since 2005, playoff favorites of 8 or more points are 133-99 (57.3%) ATS
- Since 2005, playoff favorites after a loss of 10 or more points have gone 113-80 (58.5%) ATS
NBA Finals: Cavs vs. Warriors
This playoff betting system is 93-75 ATS, +14.1 units since 2005