Spring training begins next week when pitchers and catchers report for the first workouts of the season. A new MLB season is almost upon us, which means it’s a great time to talk season win totals. The Atlantis Sportsbook is the first to post win totals for the 2017 MLB season. Which teams are offering value?

To determine which teams are offering value we will look at the 2017 projected standings from FanGraphs and compare them to each team’s season win totals. The projections and win totals are within 3.5 games for 24 of the 30 teams. That leaves six teams that are projected to over/underperform this season.

Over Teams

Oakland Athletics

The A’s were bad last season finishing in the bottom of the AL West. The team underperformed their 2016 win total by nearly 7 games. Billy Beane never has a big payroll but the team is projected to flirt with being a .500 team.

Los Angeles Angels

Here is another AL West team that is expected to bounce back. The Angels pitching staff was decimated by injuries last year. Of the eight starters the team began the season with, seven suffered an injury and one was traded. A healthy pitching staff plus Mike Trout makes it easy to think LA could top their win total.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay finished 25 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East last year and underperformed their season win total. Are you seeing a pattern here? The Rays have a crop of young talented pitchers, the team will try to ride those arms to success (and hopefully a win total cover).

If you are skeptical of FanGraphs projections, BasebaseProspectus also forecasts all three teams to exceed their 2017 win totals.

Under Teams

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brew Crew is a team in transition and unfortunately for Milwaukee they play in one of the most difficult divisions in baseball. The Cubs have the highest win total in the Majors and the Cards and Pirates are each expected to win 80+ games once again. Even if the team is better this summer it might not be reflected in their wins.

New York Mets

The Mets have the fifth highest win total. New York followed up a surprise World Series run in 2015 with a return trip to the playoffs last year. Injuries were a problem last year and many might expect even more from the club with better injury luck but both FanGraphs and BaseballProspectus are projecting a disappointing season for the Mets.

Baltimore Orioles

The O’s surprised last season competing with the Red Sox for the AL East title. Baltimore earned a Wild Card berth and are looking for a third trip to the postseason in four years. Yet, the projection systems are fading the Orioles. The lineup is full of swing-and-miss bats and the starting pitching is a question mark.


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Below is each team’s 2017 win total and projected wins from FanGraphs.

Team2017 Win TotalProj. Wins
Angels76.584
Astros87.590
Athletics66.577
Blue Jays86.584
Braves71.574
Brewers72.568
Cardinals87.584
Cubs95.594
Diamondbacks78.577
Dodgers91.595
Giants87.587
Indians92.591
Mariners85.583
Marlins77.579
Mets89.584
Nationals90.590
Orioles84.579
Padres64.566
Phillies72.571
Pirates85.582
Rangers86.583
Rays75.581
Red Sox90.592
Reds73.570
Rockies79.579
Royals80.578
Tigers85.583
Twins70.574
White Sox73.570
Yankees83.583