Spring training begins next week when pitchers and catchers report for the first workouts of the season. A new MLB season is almost upon us, which means it’s a great time to talk season win totals. The Atlantis Sportsbook is the first to post win totals for the 2017 MLB season. Which teams are offering value?
To determine which teams are offering value we will look at the 2017 projected standings from FanGraphs and compare them to each team’s season win totals. The projections and win totals are within 3.5 games for 24 of the 30 teams. That leaves six teams that are projected to over/underperform this season.
The A’s were bad last season finishing in the bottom of the AL West. The team underperformed their 2016 win total by nearly 7 games. Billy Beane never has a big payroll but the team is projected to flirt with being a .500 team.
Los Angeles Angels
Here is another AL West team that is expected to bounce back. The Angels pitching staff was decimated by injuries last year. Of the eight starters the team began the season with, seven suffered an injury and one was traded. A healthy pitching staff plus Mike Trout makes it easy to think LA could top their win total.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay finished 25 games behind the Red Sox in the AL East last year and underperformed their season win total. Are you seeing a pattern here? The Rays have a crop of young talented pitchers, the team will try to ride those arms to success (and hopefully a win total cover).
If you are skeptical of FanGraphs projections, BasebaseProspectus also forecasts all three teams to exceed their 2017 win totals.
The Brew Crew is a team in transition and unfortunately for Milwaukee they play in one of the most difficult divisions in baseball. The Cubs have the highest win total in the Majors and the Cards and Pirates are each expected to win 80+ games once again. Even if the team is better this summer it might not be reflected in their wins.
New York Mets
The Mets have the fifth highest win total. New York followed up a surprise World Series run in 2015 with a return trip to the playoffs last year. Injuries were a problem last year and many might expect even more from the club with better injury luck but both FanGraphs and BaseballProspectus are projecting a disappointing season for the Mets.
The O’s surprised last season competing with the Red Sox for the AL East title. Baltimore earned a Wild Card berth and are looking for a third trip to the postseason in four years. Yet, the projection systems are fading the Orioles. The lineup is full of swing-and-miss bats and the starting pitching is a question mark.
The MLB season is just around the corner
Below is each team’s 2017 win total and projected wins from FanGraphs.
|Team||2017 Win Total||Proj. Wins|