The best sluggers in baseball will be launching balls into the stands this Monday during the Home Run Derby. Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are the favorites to win. Here are more prop bets for the 2017 MLB Home Run Derby.

Longest HR in Round 1

  • Aaron Judge: -145
  • Field: +105

Judge has the longest home run in the 2017 season measuring at 495 feet. He is the favorite, fair enough but the value is on the field.

Note: This prop does not include dingers hit during a swing-off.

Longest HR of contest

  • Over 499.5 feet: -510
  • Under 499.5 feet: +340

In-game, there has only been one homer (Stanton, 504 ft, 2016) according to Statcast that has traveled 500+ feet. The longest home run in last year’s Derby was a 497-footer. Bettors think the OVER is the smart play.

Note: Includes all rounds and home runs hit during a swing-off.

Total HRs hit by one player

  • Over 46.5: +150
  • Under 46.5: -190

Only once (Staton with 61 last year) has a player topped 46.5 home runs in the Derby. Only two other hitters even got to 40.

Which player will advance to semifinals?

Stanton and Judge are big favorites to advance past the quarterfinals with implied probabilities of greater than 75%.

SeedPlayerOdds
1Giancarlo Stanton-380
8Gary Sanchez+260
4Mike Moustakas-105
5Miguel Sano-135
2Aaron Judge-305
7Justin Bour+225
3Cody Bellinger-160
6Charlie Blackmon+120

Reach Home Run Derby final?

We’d all love to see a Stanton vs. Judge final and the oddsmakers think it is the most likely outcome. However, since posting the odds to win the contest yesterday every participant except the Marlins and Yankees sluggers have seen their odds improve. Remember, this is a single elimination tournament, anything can happen.

PlayerYesNo
Giancarlo Stanton-150110
Aaron Judge-145105
Cody Bellinger+340-510
Mike Moustakas+460-780
Miguel Sano+440-720
Charlie Blackmon+460-780
Justin Bour+460-780
Gary Sanchez+490-870

More Prop Bets

Which league will win HR Derby?

  • AL: -118
  • NL: -102

Who will win HR Derby?

  • MIA or NYY player: -275
  • Field: +235

Who will win HR Derby?

  • Stanton and Judge: -164
  • Field: +144

Which seed will win HR Derby?

  • 1-3 seed: -253
  • 4-8 seed: +213

Which seed will win HR Derby?

  • 1-5 seed: -575
  • 6-8 seed: +438

Which seed will win HR Derby?

  • 1-6 seed: -950
  • 7-8 seed: +625

Stanton vs. Sanchez

  • Stanton wins before 0:59 left: +160
  • Any other result: -210

Judge vs. Bour

  • Judge wins before 0:59 left: +160
  • Any other result: -210

MLB Over/Under Pro Systems

Picks are 98-75 (57%), +20.5 units in 2017

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