This is for all the degenerates out there. When filling out brackets and betting games isn’t enough there are also prop bets for the tournament. Here are a few of our favorites.
Prop bets courtesy of 5Dimes and BetOnline.
Will any #1-seed win their opening game by 40+ points?
- Yes +120
- No -160
Since the 2005 tournament, 1-seeds have gone 48-0 vs. 16-seeds but only seven times have they won by 40 or more points and just once since 2011.
Will all four #1-seeds win their opening game by double-digits?
- Yes -260
- No +180
The implied probability of “Yes” is 72.2% and 44 of 48 (91.7%) games between 1-seeds and 16-seeds in our database have been decided by at least 10 points.
How many #1-seeds will reach the Final 4?
- 0: +450
- 1: +145
- 2: +175
- 3: +700
- 4: +3300
Since 1979, No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four as such:
- None – 3 times
- One – 15 times
- Two – 15 times
- Three – 4 times
- Four – 1 time
Even at +3300 there is no value betting that all four No. 1s will make it. According to our simulation, there is just a 1.01% chance that occurs. It would need to happen nearly 3% of the time to have value betting +3300.
Games decided by exactly 1 point in the entire tournament (Round of 64 to Title Game):
- Over 4.5 (+255)
- Under 4.5 (-365)
Since 2005 there have been 40 games decided by exactly 1 point in the tournament. That averages out to 2.5 games per March Madness.
Will any game go into overtime? (Round of 64 to Title Game)
- Yes -565
- No +375
Since 2011, there have been 21 games that have gone to overtime in the NCAA tournament and at least once every season. The implied probability of a game going to overtime this year is 85.0%.
Will there be a double-overtime game? (Round of 64 to Title Game)
- Yes -120
- No -120
Last year No. 12 Arkansas Little Rock upset No. 5 Purdue to double overtime in the first round of the tournament. A few days later Texas A&M erased a 12 point deficit in the last 44 seconds and then topped Northern Iowa in two overtimes to reach the Sweet 16. Both were the first time a game had went to double overtime since San Diego State vs. Temple in 2011.
Will there be a buzzer-beater? (Round of 64 to Title Game)
- Yes -265
- No +185
Buzzer-beaters are a common occurrence in the NCAA tournament. The odds suggest there is a 72.6% chance a team wins on a last second shot.
Will any conference have at least 6 teams in the Sweet 16?
- Yes +280
- No -400
The ACC sent six teams to the Sweet 16 last year and have the most teams of any conference in the tournament. Everything has to break right to have 6 of 16 teams representing the same conference.
Will any conference have at least 2 teams in the Final 4?
- Yes +180
- No -260
In each of the last four seasons and in 13 of the last 18 years, two teams from the same conference have reached the Final Four. That’s why the odds of it occurring are just +180 even though it seems unlikely to occur. The ACC did it last year and could repeat the feat again. North Carolina and Louisville have the second and fifth best Final Four odds.
2017 NCAA Tournament
There are +30 Pro System picks for the First Round of the Big Dance