North Carolina, Gonzaga, Oregon and South Carolina will battle it out for the right to be crowned national champions. Which Final Four team is the most likely to win it all?
To find out we simulated the Final Four of the 2017 NCAA tournament 10,000 times. The Bracket Simulator combines our historical database along with data from Ken Pomeroy, ESPN and Jeff Sagarin to run the simulations.
Readers familiar with our simulations will know that Gonzaga has been our pick to win the tournament all season. The Bulldogs were our pre-tourney pick to cut down the nets in Phoenix and the Zags remain the favorites in the simulations. In the team’s first Final Four trip, Mark Few’s squad is the most likely to advance to the championship game (78.6%) and wins the title in 51.4% of the simulations.
If it’s not the Zags, then North Carolina, the only blue blood among the group, is your next most likely champion. UNC and Gonzaga are your most likely title game matchup. In that potential game, the Bulldogs are projected to win 63.4% of the time.
Final Four matrix – probability of a team defeating any other
Oregon and South Carolina are your Final Four party crashers. The Ducks hadn’t made it to the last weekend in 78 years and the Gamecocks hadn’t won a tournament game before this season in 44 years. Oregon has a punchers chance of reaching the title game. The Ducks have a 44.2% chance of upsetting the Tar Heels. South Carolina has been an underdog all tournament and have roughly a 1-in-5 chance of beating Gonzaga.
|Team||Seed||Reach Championship||Win Title|
No.1 North Carolina vs. No. 3 Oregon
There is a Pro System pick for this game that is 95-64 (60%) ATS