Who will win the Super Bowl? What team will they defeat in the big game? A fun prop this time of year is exact Super Bowl matchups because no teams are officially eliminated from the postseason. You can bet on every combination of teams to face each other in the title game, even Jets vs. 49ers (+999999), but only a few have value.
To determine if a matchup has value we look at what their current odds are at 5Dimes and compare that to our projected odds that the two teams meet in the Super Bowl. For example, the Patriots and Packers are +1650, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on that matchup the two teams would need to square off 5.71% (which is 100/(1650+100)) of the time. The projected chance of a New England/Green Bay Super Bowl is 5.28%, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at +1650 odds.
Here are the best bets to place based on our simulations.
Steelers vs. Falcons
Current odds: +3250, Implied Probability: 3.28%
Chance of matchup: 5.04%
Looking for a longshot? Fade the Patriots. New England is part of the four most likely Super Bowl matchups according to the odds. Even though Pittsburgh (-7) shockingly lost in Chicago last week, the Steelers are still the second most likely team to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Pair them with the Falcons, the best team in the NFC, and you got a great bet at better than 30/1 odds.
Patriots vs. Falcons
Current odds: +1635, Implied Probability: 5.76%
Chance of matchup: 7.14%
Championship rematches work great in the NBA, why not the NFL as well? Not only is this the betting favorite in Vegas it is also the most likely matchup according to our simulations. The Pats (2-1) and Falcons (3-0) are the most likely teams to get home-field and a first round bye in their respective conferences.
NFL and College Football Pro Systems
All football picks: +30.1 units in 2017
Below are the most likely Super Bowl matchups and their odds.
|Exact Matchup||Odds||Implied Probability||Projected Chance|
|Patriots vs. Falcons||+1635||5.76||7.14|
|Patriots vs. Packers||+1650||5.71||5.28|
|Patriots vs. Cowboys||+1995||4.77||4.91|
|Patriots vs. Seahawks||+2405||3.99||3.62|
|Chiefs vs. Falcons||+2950||3.28||3.98|
|Chiefs vs. Packers||+3200||3.03||2.93|
|Steelers vs. Falcons||+3250||2.99||5.04|
|Steelers vs. Packers||+3300||2.94||3.14|
|Chiefs vs. Cowboys||+3850||2.53||2.61|
|Raiders vs. Packers||+4325||2.26||1.36|
|Patriots vs. Eagles||+4550||2.15||2.05|
|Chiefs vs. Seahawks||+4625||2.12||2.33|
|Patriots vs. Vikings||+4725||2.07||1.72|
|Steelers vs. Seahawks||+4750||2.06||2.47|
|Titans vs. Falcons||+5000||1.96||1.8|