Statement wins (TCU and Georgia) and nail-biters (Penn State and Florida), all part of another thrilling Saturday. In case you missed it, here is your College Football Week 4 betting recap.

Week 4 Betting Trends

Underdogs went 32-26 (55.2%) ATS

  • Underdogs in 2017: 157-123 (56.1%) ATS, +24.54 units

Road teams went 35-22 (61.4%) ATS

  • Road teams in 2017: 161-107 (60.1%) ATS, +44.43 units

Unders went 33-25 (56.9%)

  • Unders in 2017: 158-121 (56.6%), +24.9 units

Biggest Money-line Upsets

Arizona State (+481) vs. Oregon

Freshman kicker Brandon Ruiz connected on a 41-yard field goal with 2:33 to play to help Arizona State upset No. 24 Oregon 37-35. Only 7% of moneyline dollars were on the Sun Devils to win.

Virginia (+447) at Boise State

UVA upset Boise State, who cares. The Broncos have a puppy retrieve the tee after kick offs, heart explodes!

NC State (+386) at Florida State

It was NC State’s first road win over a ranked team since 2008. Ryan Finley threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns beating No. 12 Florida State 27-21. It has been a rough start for the Noles this year.

New Mexico (+274) at Tulsa

Jason Sanders hit a 53-yard field goal as time expired to beat Tulsa 16-13. Over 70% of moneyline bets were on the Golden Hurricanes as home favorites.

TCU (+271) at Oklahoma State

TCU is for real. The Horned Frogs went into the Stillwater and dominated No. 6 Oklahoma State racking up nearly 500 yards of offense and leading by as many as 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Frogs are Oklahoma’s main challenger for the Big 12 crown. 

Last Second Comeback

Juwan Johnson caught a seven-yard touchdown from Trace McSorley with no time remaining to stun Iowa 21-19. No. 4 Penn State outgained the Hawkeyes 579-273 but were nearly upset. The Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes are still alive.

Buy teams off big offensive games

Road underdogs after a big offensive performance (600+ yards) are undervalued. Since 2005, betting on these teams has gone 118-73 (61.8%) ATS including 9-5 ATS in 2017. This system pointed to TCU and Virginia in Week 4.

Fade ranked Power-5 teams off blowout loss

If a team is still ranked after a blowout loss you need to fade them the next week, especially if they are big favorites (14 or more points): 49-21 (70.0%) ATS since 2005. Louisville and LSU both got rolled in Week 3 and were great teams to bet against in Week 4 as neither covered against-the-spread.

Trend Highlight – Fade Home Favorites After Scoring <10 points

If your favorite team scores less than 10 points and then is favored at home in the next game, look out! Team matching this system have gone 223-156 (58.8%) ATS, +54.86 units. Check back tomorrow when Week 5 lines open to get game matches.

All College Football Pro Systems are 90-64 (ATS, ML and O/U), 58.4% win rate, +25.68 units to start 2017.

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