Statement wins (TCU and Georgia) and nail-biters (Penn State and Florida), all part of another thrilling Saturday. In case you missed it, here is your College Football Week 4 betting recap.
Week 4 Betting Trends
Underdogs went 32-26 (55.2%) ATS
- Underdogs in 2017: 157-123 (56.1%) ATS, +24.54 units
Road teams went 35-22 (61.4%) ATS
- Road teams in 2017: 161-107 (60.1%) ATS, +44.43 units
Unders went 33-25 (56.9%)
- Unders in 2017: 158-121 (56.6%), +24.9 units
Biggest Money-line Upsets
Arizona State (+481) vs. Oregon
Right down Mill Avenue. Brandon Ruiz puts @footballasu back on top with a clutch FG.
— Pac-12 Network (@Pac12Network) September 24, 2017
Freshman kicker Brandon Ruiz connected on a 41-yard field goal with 2:33 to play to help Arizona State upset No. 24 Oregon 37-35. Only 7% of moneyline dollars were on the Sun Devils to win.
Virginia (+447) at Boise State
Boise State's tee-fetching dog is SUCH A GOOD DOG pic.twitter.com/Mc5hCE2p7n
— SB Nation (@SBNation) September 22, 2017
UVA upset Boise State, who cares. The Broncos have a puppy retrieve the tee after kick offs, heart explodes!
NC State (+386) at Florida State
NC State's 27-21 win at No. 12 FSU drops the Noles to 0-2 for the first time since 1989, when Brett Favre & Southern Miss knocked them off. pic.twitter.com/SbU65jRc9G
— ESPN CollegeFootball (@ESPNCFB) September 23, 2017
It was NC State’s first road win over a ranked team since 2008. Ryan Finley threw for 230 yards and two touchdowns beating No. 12 Florida State 27-21. It has been a rough start for the Noles this year.
New Mexico (+274) at Tulsa
— New Mexico Lobos (@UNMLOBOS) September 23, 2017
Jason Sanders hit a 53-yard field goal as time expired to beat Tulsa 16-13. Over 70% of moneyline bets were on the Golden Hurricanes as home favorites.
TCU (+271) at Oklahoma State
No party in the back today.
No. 16 TCU takes down No. 6 Oklahoma State, 44-31 pic.twitter.com/NIYtHWpJQf
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 23, 2017
TCU is for real. The Horned Frogs went into the Stillwater and dominated No. 6 Oklahoma State racking up nearly 500 yards of offense and leading by as many as 20 points in the fourth quarter. The Frogs are Oklahoma’s main challenger for the Big 12 crown.
Last Second Comeback
I will be seeing this play in my sleep for the rest of my life pic.twitter.com/EFkxG8gQzI
— Barstool Hawkeyes (@BarstoolUIowa) September 24, 2017
Juwan Johnson caught a seven-yard touchdown from Trace McSorley with no time remaining to stun Iowa 21-19. No. 4 Penn State outgained the Hawkeyes 579-273 but were nearly upset. The Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes are still alive.
Buy teams off big offensive games
That's all folks! pic.twitter.com/f6cec2vTGx
— Barstool TCU (@BarstoolTCU) September 23, 2017
Road underdogs after a big offensive performance (600+ yards) are undervalued. Since 2005, betting on these teams has gone 118-73 (61.8%) ATS including 9-5 ATS in 2017. This system pointed to TCU and Virginia in Week 4.
Fade ranked Power-5 teams off blowout loss
Late 4th on ESPN2
I’m not sure what’s more disheartening, how LSU is playing or seeing Tiger Stadium that empty.
— Peter Burns (@PeterBurnsESPN) September 24, 2017
If a team is still ranked after a blowout loss you need to fade them the next week, especially if they are big favorites (14 or more points): 49-21 (70.0%) ATS since 2005. Louisville and LSU both got rolled in Week 3 and were great teams to bet against in Week 4 as neither covered against-the-spread.
Trend Highlight – Fade Home Favorites After Scoring <10 points
If your favorite team scores less than 10 points and then is favored at home in the next game, look out! Team matching this system have gone 223-156 (58.8%) ATS, +54.86 units. Check back tomorrow when Week 5 lines open to get game matches.
All College Football Pro Systems are 90-64 (ATS, ML and O/U), 58.4% win rate, +25.68 units to start 2017.
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