No. 1 Georgia lost, Miami is back and Baker Mayfield is a lock to win the Heisman. A lot happened on a wild Saturday in college football. In case you missed it, here is your Week 11 betting recap.

Week 11 Betting Trends

Favorites 31-26-3 (54.4%) ATS

Home teams: 35-20-3 (63.6%) ATS

Ranked teams: 11-11-1 (50.0%) ATS

  • Ranked teams at home: 8-2 ATS

Overs went 37-22-1 (62.7%)

  • Totals under 50, the Over was 10-1-1

It was not profitable to bet against the public (<50% of bets) in all games: 25-32-2 (43.9%) ATS but fading casual bettors in the most popular games on Saturday went 3-0 ATS.

Biggest Money-line Upsets

South Alabama +400 vs. Arkansas State

Old Dominion +282 at Florida International

North Carolina +278 at Pitt

Stanford +240 vs. Washington

UAB +219 at UTSA 

Miami +146 vs. Notre Dame

It was never close, Miami forced four turnovers and jumped out to a 34-0 lead before conceding a score to No. 3 Notre Dame. The Canes win extends their streak to 14 straight, the longest in the nation. 

Auburn +128 vs. Georgia 

Auburn dominated top-ranked Georgia 40-17. Kerryon Johnson rushed for 167 yards and Jerrett Stidham threw three touchdowns as the Tigers outgained the Bulldogs 488-230. 


Three teams on Saturday (UConn, Rutgers and Kansas) were all massive underdogs or 30 or more points. Each team covered. Underdogs of 30 or more points are now 57-23 (71.3%) ATS in 2017. 

Baker Mayfield Heisman Lock 

Even before throwing for 333 yards and three touchdowns against the Horned Frogs, Mayfield was the clear Heisman favorite. After the Sooners thrashed TCU 38-20, the star quarterback is a lock to win the award. Mayfield is now 9-0 in November during his time in Norman, seven of those wins have come against ranked opponents. 

0 ATS Wins

Florida State was primed to get its first win against-the-spread in 2017 but the Noles conceded a touchdown with 35 seconds to play. FSU lost to Clemson 31-14, the team closed as 16.5-point underdogs. The Seminoles are the only team in the country that hasn’t covered this season.

Trend Highlight – Fade Home Favorites After Scoring <10 points

Teams favored at home after scoring less than 10 points in their previous game are expected to bounce back. Since 2005, these teams have underperformed. Contrarian bettors have profited going 231-161-3 (58.9%) ATS since 2005. This betting system is 18-8 ATS in 2017.

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