North Carolina defeated Oregon and Gonzaga bested South Carolina to advance to the national championship game. This is the Tar Heels second straight title game and the Zags first appearance. Here is everything you need to know about the big game on Monday.

Betting Line

The lookahead lines leading up to the Final Four had the Tar Heels as 2-point favorites and that is what UNC opened as in the title game.

Early money is coming in on the underdogs. Gonzaga is getting 60% of the bets and 61% of the spread dollars to cover. Fun fact, North Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite against Villanova last year. The Wildcats won on a 3-pointer at the buzzer.

The early betting action has moved the line to UNC -1.5. If the line holds, this would be the first time all season that Gonzaga enters a game as an underdog.

The total is listed at 153.5, up from the lookahead line of 151.5. Both Final Four games went OVER. This has been the most profitable NCAA tournament for OVERs in our database.

Futures

Last April, the Tar Heels opened at +1500 to win the national championship. Back in November the team’s title odds peaked at +1900 before steadily decreasing. Before the tournament started UNC was +700 favorite to cut down the nets.

Some bettors were lucky to get Gonzaga at +8000 after last season ended. However, that line didn’t last long. By December the Bulldogs were +2000 and entered the tourney at +1000 with one loss, the fourth best betting odds.

Simulations

After 10,000 simulations of the national championship game, the most likely winner is the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Mark Few’s team wins the title 63.4% of the time. The Zags are No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 1 overall in KenPom’s rankings.

The oddsmakers have UNC as -119 favorites on the moneyline. The implied odds suggest the Tar Heels win their 6th title 54.3% of the time. However, we only give Roy Williams bunch a 36.6% chance of winning as favorites.

TeamProjected Chance
Gonzaga Bulldogs63.4%
North Carolina Tar Heels36.6%

Pro System Pick

There is a Pro System for the title game that is 95-64 (60%) ATS and 8-4 ATS for this tournament.

Note: our simulations are for fun while our Pro Systems are based on proprietary historical betting data. Sometimes our picks and simulations agree, other times they do not.

Which team should you bet?