It is Championship Week and every major conference tournament is about to tip off. With automatic bids to the NCAA tournament on the line we have simulated each conference tournament 10,000 times using the Bracket Simulator to determine the most likely winner(s).

When: March 8-12th

Where: Washington, D.C.

The automatic bid goes to: Purdue (32.7%)

The Boilermakers are the best team in a weak Big Ten. Purdue is the only conference member to rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Matt Painter’s team is no lock to win the tournament but with the conference’s best player, Caleb Swanigan, they have the greatest chance.

And if they lose: Wisconsin (26.4%)

Wisconsin stumbled down the stretch losing five of their last seven games but the Badgers play solid defense allowing the tenth fewest points per game (61.6) in the country. A little more consistency on the offensive end could see Wisconsin cut down the nets in Washington.

Teams with Value

Which teams are offering value to win the Big Ten tournament?

Michigan +950: No team is offering value to win the Big Ten based on our simulations. However, if you are desperate the Wolverines are your best bet. This might be the most talented squad with double-digit losses in the nation. According to kenpom.com the Wolverines are 6th in offensive efficiency and rank 25th overall. The odds imply that Michigan has a 9.5% chance to win, the simulations give the Wolverines an 8.5% chance.


All-time March Madness Pro Systems are 882-592 (60%), +239.41 units

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Odds to win the Big Ten Tournament (based on 10,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

SeedTeamProjected ChanceOdds
1Purdue32.7+165
2Wisconsin26.4+220
3Maryland8+850
4Minnesota9.2+650
5Michigan State4.1+1100
6Northwestern5.2+1350
7Iowa0.9+3000
8Michigan8.5+950
9Illinois0.6+5000
10Indiana3.4+1700
11Ohio State0.7+3500
12Nebraska0.1+7500
13Penn State0.3+6600
14Rutgers0+15000