It is Championship Week and every major conference tournament is about to tip off. With automatic bids to the NCAA tournament on the line we have simulated each conference tournament 10,000 times using the Bracket Simulator to determine the most likely winner(s).

When: March 7-11th

Where: Brooklyn, NY

The automatic bid goes to: North Carolina (24.9%)

UNC is looking to win back-to-back conference tournament titles. The Tar Heels have the rare combination of inside and outside scoring. Justin Jackson and Joel Berry are accurate from behind the arc and Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks can score from the post and crash the boards. North Carolina is the best team in the ACC and the rightful favorites to win the tournament.

And if they lose: Louisville (22.0%)

Louisville played one of the toughest schedules in the country and has seven wins over top 50 teams. If the Cardinals win it will be because of defense. Rick Pitino’s club allows just 65.4 points per game and is sixth in defensive efficiency.

Teams with Value

Which teams are offering value to win the ACC tournament?

Virginia +550: The numbers like UVA better than the pollsters. The Hoos defense is the best in the country and despite a rough stretch where the team lost six of eight, Virginia closed the season by winning three in a row including topping North Carolina in Chapel Hill.

Florida State +800: The Noles got the best draw in the tournament. Florida State’s most likely semifinal matchup is the easiest of the top four teams to earn a double-bye.


All-time March Madness Pro Systems are 882-592 (60%), +239.41 units

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Odds to win the ACC Tournament (based on 10,000 simulations of the conference tournament)

SeedTeamProjected ChanceOdds
1North Carolina24.9+150
2Florida State12.7+800
3Notre Dame6.3+1150
4Louisville22.0+330
5Duke8.1+370
6Virginia21.8+550
7Virginia Tech0.6+4000
8Syracuse0.3+2500
9Miami1.7+2600
10Wake Forest1.3+5000
11Georgia Tech0.0+10000
12Clemson0.3+6000
13NC State0.0+9000
14Pittsburgh0.0+10000
15Boston College0.0+20000