The 2017-18 NBA season begins tonight. You know the Warriors are favorites to repeat but here is everything else you might not know. 

2016-17 Betting Trends

Most Profitable Teams

  • Philadelphia 76ers 49-33 ATS, +13.74 units
  • Miami Heat 49-33 ATS, +13.69 units
  • Denver Nuggets 46-35 ATS, +8.95 units

Least Profitable Teams

  • Orlando Magic 32-48 ATS, -17.67 units
  • Charlotte Hornets 35-45 ATS, -11.89 units
  • Milwaukee Bucks 36-46 ATS, -11.72 units

Popular favorites (teams getting 70% or more of bets): 130-148 ATS

Favorites of 10 or more points

  • Home 93-87 ATS
  • Road 9-25 ATS

Betting against the public by spread ticket percentage

Betting against the public by spread dollar percentage

Looking for a strategy to bet against the public in 2017-18? Here are a few contrarian approaches.

2017-18 Most Likely Playoff Teams (Westgate)

  • Warriors -100000
  • Cavs -5000
  • Celtics -5000
  • Rockets -2000
  • Spurs -2000
  • Thunder -1600
  • Wizards -1100
  • Raptors -800
  • Bucks -700

Golden State is such a massive favorite to reach the postseason that you would have to wager $100,000 to win $100. 

Favorites to win Scoring Title in 2017-18 (BetOnline)

  • James Harden +400
  • Russell Westbrook +600
  • LeBron James +700
  • Kevin Durant +800
  • Anthony Davis +1000

Westbrook and Harden finished first and second in scoring last year and are favorites to lead the league in points scored once again. However, with the additions of Chris Paul, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George each player could struggle to match last year’s output.

Odds to win 2017-18 Rookie of the Year (BetOnline)

  • Ben Simmons +225
  • Lonzo Ball +225
  • Dennis Smith +350
  • Markelle Fultz +1000
  • De’Aaron Fox +1000

It is a three-way race for Rookie of the Year but if its anything like last season the betting favorite will change a few times throughout the season.

2017-18 NBA MVP (BetOnline)

  • LeBron James +400
  • Kawhi Leonard +450
  • Russell Westbrook +600
  • James Harden +800
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo +800 

After the Finals, LeBron opened +750 to win his fifth MVP. We said at those odds there was value betting the King. Bettors listened and now the Cavs star is the favorite.

Most popular teams to win 2017-18 NBA Title (% of money Bovada)

  • Golden State Warriors 60%
  • Cleveland Cavaliers 9%
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 9%
  • Boston Celtics 7%
  • Houston Rockets 4%

Shocker, the Warriors are taking the most money. What is truly surprising is how lopsided the betting action has been. Bookmakers are overweight on the defending champs and will likely be cheering for the field this season.

Popular 2017-18 Over/Under teams (Bovada)

  • Thunder (Over 50.5)
  • Hawks (Over 25.5)
  • Cavaliers (Over 53.5)
  • Knicks (Under 30.5)
  • 76ers (Under 41.5)
  • Celtics (Under 55.5)

Using real plus-minus, there is value on the Celtics and 76ers Under as well as the Hawks Over.


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