Welcome to Bet Labs 2017 NFL preview series where we will look at all eight of the league’s divisions. As part of the preview, we will highlight each team’s chances of winning their respective division and take a look at their season win total.
To create our projections we simulated the 2017 NFL season 10,000 times using team projections and adjusting for Strength of Schedule.
We began with the NFC East; now we head to the AFC East.
New England Patriots
2016 Record: 14-2
Home Games: KC, HOU, CAR, ATL, LAC
Away Games: NO, TB, DEN, OAK, PIT
The Patriots have won the AFC East for eight straight years (and 13 of last 14). New England’s division rivals weren’t able to take advantage of a four-game suspension to Tom Brady last year so its hard to imagine them fairing any better with the future Hall of Famer available for all of the 2017 campaign.
In addition to Brady, the Pats should get a healthy Gronk back, resigned Dont’a Hightower, added the top corner on the market in Stephon Gilmore, traded for Brandin Cooks and Kony Ealy and extended Julian Edelman and James White. New England is primed to not only win the division (96.1% chance) but to also repeat as Super Bowl champions.
The Pats most likely result is a 13-3 record, which occurs 23.5% of the time in 10,000 simulations. New England has the highest win total in football at 12.5. There is a 52.3% chance the team wins 12 or fewer games while there is a 47.7% chance of winning 13 or more games. There is no value betting the team’s over/under.
2016 Record: 10-6
Home Games: TB, NO, TEN, OAK, DEN
Away Games: LAC, ATL, BAL, CAR, KC
The Fins reached the postseason for the first time in seven years by going 10-6 last year. It was a remarkable feat considering the Dolphins started the season 1-4. But, they were outscored by their opponents and had a Pythagorean win total of 7.5 games (not 10 wins). They also ranked as an average team offensively and defensively according to DVOA.
These are the expectations Miami fans should have coming into the season. Could the Dolphins win 10 games again and make the playoffs? Sure but there is just a 7.8% chance the team finishes 10-6 or better and a 14.3% chance of reaching the postseason.
Ryan Tannehill and crew are projected to go 7-9 (occurs 20.2% of the time in the simulations). There is a 64.2% chance the team wins fewer than 7.5 games. At -125 odds there is value on the UNDER for Miami’s win total.
2016 Record: 7-9
Home Games: DEN, TB, OAK, NO, IND
Away Games: CAR, ATL, CIN, LAC, KC
Buffalo has the longest active playoff drought in major professional sports (17 years). The Bills have only enjoyed two winning seasons since 2000. The organization fired Rex Ryan and brought in Sean McDermott as well as new general manager Brandon Beane to return the organization to relevance. Unfortunately, that is unlikely to happen in 2017.
The Bills were smart to resign Tyrod Taylor and had a good draft that addressed team needs but there are too many holes on this roster. The most likely record for the team in 2017 is another 7-9 season.
The bookmakers have listed Buffalo’s win total at 6.5 games. There is a 47.9% chance the team wins 6 or fewer games and a 52.1% chance of having 7 or more wins. Unfortunately, there is no value (because of the juice) betting either side. The Bills aren’t even bad enough to give UNDER bettors any value.
Wee 1: Jets vs. Bills
This Pro System is 428-343 (56%) ATS, +64.6 units since 2005
New York Jets
2016 Record: 5-11
Home Games: JAC, ATL, CAR, KC, LAC
Away Games: OAK, CLE, TB, DEN, NO
The Jets bottomed out last year after going 10-6 in 2015. New York won just five games and finished last in the AFC East. It has been six years now since the franchise made a postseason appearance and the organization doesn’t appear ready to make a playoff push in 2017 either.
The team let veterans Nick Mangold, Darrelle Revis, Brandon Marshall, David Harris and Eric Decker leave. It will start some combination of Josh McCown, Christian Hackenberg and Bryce Petty at quarterback. The Jets look to be in full tank mode.
The oddsmakers have set the team’s win total at 5 games. Our most likely projection for the team is also a 5-11 record. Gang Green isn’t trying its hardest to win but there is actually value on the OVER 5 (+165). The Jets win 6 or more games 50.3% of the time.
AFC East Division Odds
The AFC East belongs to the Patriots. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are projected to win their ninth straight division title 96.1% of the time. The oddsmakers have listed New England as -700 favorites but according to the simulations the Pats should be closer to -2500 favorites.
|Team||Odds||Projected Chance (%)|
Check back tomorrow when we review the NFC North.