Every NFL team believes it can win the Super Bowl before the season starts. For some teams and fan bases the title chase is real, for others, training camp optimism quickly fades. Which teams have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl?

To answer that question we simulated to 2016 NFL season 10,000 times. We calculated the average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and hoisting the Super Bowl trophy.

After 10,000 simulations, the most likely Super Bowl Champions is the Green Bay Packers. The Cheeseheads win it all a league-best 11.6% of the time.

Behind the Packers are the New England Patriots. Even with Tom Brady suspended for four games the Pats are the most likely AFC team to win the championship (11.5%).

There are three others teams with better than ten percent chance of winning the title. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10.8%), Seattle Seahawks (10.7%) and Carolina Panthers (10.6%) all have better than a one-in-ten chance.

The NFC is a slight favorite (51.5%) to win the Super Bowl. In Vegas, the early line for Super Bowl 51 is AFC -120.

The most likely Super Bowl champion that was not a playoff participant last year is the Indianapolis Colts. With a healthy Andrew Luck the Colts are 4.6% likely to win the title, tied for the 9th best odds.

The least likely Super Bowl champion that was in the postseason a season ago is the Washington Redskins. There is a 0.7% chance that Dan Snyder wins a Super Bowl.

There are 15 teams with at least a 1% chance of winning the title and only two (Cleveland and San Francisco, sorry) that have a 0% chance.

Below are the title chances for every team in the NFL.

TeamSuper Bowl Probability
Green Bay Packers11.6%
New England Patriots11.5%
Pittsburgh Steelers10.8%
Seattle Seahawks10.7%
Carolina Panthers10.6%
Minnesota Vikings5.2%
Arizona Cardinals5.1%
Denver Broncos4.8%
Cincinnati Bengals4.6%
Indianapolis Colts4.6%
Kansas City Chiefs4.6%
Dallas Cowboys3.9%
Houston Texans2.2%
Oakland Raiders1.8%
New York Giants1.1%
Baltimore Ravens0.9%
New York Jets0.9%
Buffalo Bills0.8%
Washington Redskins0.7%
Jacksonville Jaguars0.5%
Philadelphia Eagles0.5%
Atlanta Falcons0.5%
Chicago Bears0.4%
Los Angeles Rams0.4%
San Diego Chargers0.4%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0.3%
Detroit Lions0.3%
New Orleans Saints0.3%
Miami Dolphins0.2%
Tennessee Titans0.1%
Cleveland Browns0.0%
San Francisco 49ers0.0%

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