Every NFL team believes it can win the Super Bowl before the season starts. For some teams and fan bases the title chase is real, for others, training camp optimism quickly fades. Which teams have the best chance of winning the Super Bowl?
To answer that question we simulated to 2016 NFL season 10,000 times. We calculated the average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and hoisting the Super Bowl trophy.
After 10,000 simulations, the most likely Super Bowl Champions is the Green Bay Packers. The Cheeseheads win it all a league-best 11.6% of the time.
Behind the Packers are the New England Patriots. Even with Tom Brady suspended for four games the Pats are the most likely AFC team to win the championship (11.5%).
There are three others teams with better than ten percent chance of winning the title. The Pittsburgh Steelers (10.8%), Seattle Seahawks (10.7%) and Carolina Panthers (10.6%) all have better than a one-in-ten chance.
The NFC is a slight favorite (51.5%) to win the Super Bowl. In Vegas, the early line for Super Bowl 51 is AFC -120.
The most likely Super Bowl champion that was not a playoff participant last year is the Indianapolis Colts. With a healthy Andrew Luck the Colts are 4.6% likely to win the title, tied for the 9th best odds.
The least likely Super Bowl champion that was in the postseason a season ago is the Washington Redskins. There is a 0.7% chance that Dan Snyder wins a Super Bowl.
There are 15 teams with at least a 1% chance of winning the title and only two (Cleveland and San Francisco, sorry) that have a 0% chance.
Below are the title chances for every team in the NFL.
|Team||Super Bowl Probability|
|Green Bay Packers||11.6%|
|New England Patriots||11.5%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||4.6%|
|New York Giants||1.1%|
|New York Jets||0.9%|
|Los Angeles Rams||0.4%|
|San Diego Chargers||0.4%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||0.3%|
|New Orleans Saints||0.3%|
|San Francisco 49ers||0.0%|
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