2016 NFL Week 9 Review

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Another Motor City Miracle, the Raiders are legit and the Packers aren’t who we thought they were. Here is your NFL Week 9 betting recap.

Betting Trends

  • Favorites went 6-5-2 (54.5%) ATS
  • Home teams went 5-6-2 (45.5%) ATS
  • Overs went 8-5 (61.5%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 3-4 (42.9%) ATS
  • Teams with a winning record: 4-6-1 (40.0%) ATS

Season Trends

  • Money-line dogs of +6 or less have gone 51-52 this season, +23.1 units.
  • In 119 of 132 NFL games played this year, the team that won the game also covered the spread. Only 13 times has the dog covered but lost.

Biggest Money-line Upset 

Colts (+292) at Packers

Indy took the opening kickoff to the house and the Colts held on late to upset Green Bay 31-26. The Packers closed as the biggest favorites (-7.5) in Week 9. At 4-4 the Packers are about to embark on a critical three game road trip that will determine if the team stays in the playoff hunt.

Motor City Miracle

Matt Prater sent the game to overtime with a 58-yarder as time expired. Then Matthew Stafford marched the Lions down the field and Golden Tate topped of the win with a flip into the end zone. Detroit has trailed in every fourth quarter this season and yet has managed to win five games.

Bad Beat

This is one of the strangest sequence of events you ever see involving a field goal attempt. At the end of the first half Buffalo was trying a last second field goal. On the initial attempt Seattle cornerback Richard Sherman was flagged for being offside but the real controversy was over whether Sherman should have been flagged for unnecessary roughness for running into Bills kicker Dan Carpenter. The NFL said he should have been penalized. Once the mess got sorted out, Carpenter missed the ensuing 54-yard attempt. Had unnecessary roughness been called, Carpenter gets to attempt a much shorter field goal. Perhaps he makes it and Bills bettors holding +6 tickets go from a push to a win.

Trend Highlight – Road Dog, Low Total After Bad Season

Road teams are often undervalued in the NFL; this is especially true of underdogs. So are teams that are coming off a bad season. When you combine these traits you get a winning betting system.

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Betting road underdogs with low totals after a bad season has gone 414-334 (55.3%) ATS, +60.5 units all-time.

One game matching this system in Week 9 was Jacksonville at Kansas City. The Chiefs stifled the Jags offense for much of the game but Blake Bortles hooked up with T.J. Yeldon on a 13 yard touchdown pass late in the fourth. The score wasn’t enough for the win but Jags bettors got the cover.

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