2016 NFL Week 8 Review

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At the midway point of the NFL season the Patriots are the Super Bowl favorites, the Browns are winless and everyone is sick of ties. Week 8 in the NFL has come and gone, here is a recap of all the betting action.

Betting Trends

  • Favorites went 8-5 ATS
  • Home teams went 7-5-1 ATS
  • Overs went 9-4
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 2-3 ATS
  • Teams with a winning record went 8-6 ATS

Biggest Money-line Upset

Jay Cutler found Alshon Jeffery for an 11-yard touchdown (his first of the season) early in the third quarter that all but sealed Chicago’s 20-10 upset of Minnesota. Cutler reportedly gave a rousing halftime speech, presumably encouraging the Bears to finish what they started so that bettors could cash their +205 money-line tickets.

Bad Beat

Dak Prescott found Jason Witten wide-open in the end zone for the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Dallas won its sixth game in a row 29-23. Philadelphia held a ten point fourth quarter lead before Dak and the Cowboys rallied. Brutal beat for Eagles bettors, Dallas closed as 5 point favorites.

Replay Unavailable

Panthers linebacker Thomas Davis returned a Carson Palmer fumble for a touchdown on the sixth play of Carolina’s 30-20 win over Arizona. Only problem, the play shouldn’t have counted. Replay showed that Palmer’s fumble should have been ruled a forward pass. However, replay review was unavailable at the time, at least that is what Bruce Arians was told.

In the end, the Panthers snapped a four game losing streak. Cam Newton is now 18-9 as a home favorite.

Trend Highlight – Bad ATS vs. Good ATS Teams

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This is a contrarian betting system. The public will bet teams that have cashed tickets for them recently and fade others that did not come through for them against the spread. Going against square bettors and taking bad ATS teams against good ATS teams has gone 140-82 (63.1%) ATS, +50.7 units. This system is already 4-1 this season.

There was one play generated by this system in Week 8: Bears vs. Vikings. Jay Cutler threw for 252 yards, Jordan Howard rushed for 153 yards and Chicago committed no turnovers. The Bears +5.5 not only covered but easily won the game outright.

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©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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