Six teams clinched a playoff spot, Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota broke their legs and the Browns won in the penultimate week of the season. Here is your Week 16 betting recap.

Betting Trends

  • Favorites went 9-7 (56.3%) ATS
  • Home teams went 9-7 (56.3%) ATS
  • Overs went 12-3-1 (80.0%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 3-3 (50.0%) ATS
  • Teams with a winning record: 9-8 (52.9%) ATS

Biggest Money-line Upset

Cardinals (+330) at Seahawks 

Russell Wilson rallied Seattle from down 31-18 to take a lead with a minute to play. However, Arizona marched down the field and Chandler Catanzaro hit a 43-yard field goal on the final play that gave the Cardinals a 34-31 victory. The loss opens the door for Atlanta and Detroit to claim a first round bye.

Derek Carr Injury

Oakland clinched its first playoff berth since 2002 last week and then lost starting quarterback Derek Carr for the season with a broken leg in a 33-25 win over the Colts. If the Raiders make it to the Super Bowl it will be with Matt McGloin under center.

Christmas Miracle

Chargers kicker Josh Lambo missed a 45-yard field goal as time expired to give Cleveland a 20-17 victory. It was the Browns first win of the season (ended a 17 game losing streak) and ensures the franchise won’t finish the season an embarrassing 0-16.

Weirdest Touchdown

The exclamation point on the Chiefs 33-10 victory over the Denver Broncos was a touchdown pass by 346-pound Dontari Poe. According to ESPN, the defensive lineman is the heaviest player in NFL history to throw and run for a touchdown.

Trend Highlight – Bad ATS vs. Good ATS


Arizona has had a disappointing season after reaching the NFC title game a season ago. Seattle has won the NFC West and is competing for a first round bye. The Cardinals were 4-10 ATS before their game against Seattle while the Seahawks had a winning against-the-spread record. Betting bad ATS teams against good ATS is a profitable contrarian strategy.

All-time this Pro System is 147-90 (62%) ATS, +49.04 units.

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