After 14 weeks we are no closer to determining who will win the Super Bowl than before the season began. Parity is running amok. Only one team has clinched a postseason berth but one way or another the playoff picture will come into focus.
Here is a recap of all the Week 14 betting action.
- Favorites went 10-6 (62.5%) ATS
- Road teams went 8-8 (50.0%) ATS
- Unders went 9-7 (56.3%)
- Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 2-5 (28.6%) ATS
- Teams with a winning record: 8-6 (57.1%) ATS
Biggest Money-line Upset
Texans (+239) at Colts
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) December 12, 2016
Houston swept Indy for the first time in franchise history. The Texans kept a share of first place in the AFC South by beating the Colts 22-17 despite a lone offensive touchdown from Lamar Miller. Nick Novak did most of the heavy lifting by going 5-for-5 on field goal attempts..
The Rams coach was right; he wasn’t going 7-9 in 2016. Fisher was fired on Monday after Los Angeles lost 42-14 to the Falcons giving him six consecutive losing seasons. Fisher has accumulated 165 career losses, tying him with Dan Reeves for the NFL record.
What came first, the coach or the quarterback?
Wondering why Jeff Fisher sucked? Here's a list of his quarterbacks since 2003: pic.twitter.com/o7WyPwI8cD
— Bet Labs Sports (@Bet_Labs) December 12, 2016
Fisher wasn’t very good but the quarterbacks on his team were pretty bad.
179 total yds.
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 12, 2016
San Francisco raced out to a 14-0 lead less than five minutes into the game. The Niners at one point were as big as 20.5 point favorites on in-game betting. Anyone who bet Colin Kaepernick and crew as three point favorites had to feel great. Of course Bilal Powell had a career day rushing and Bryce Petty did just enough to rally to win in overtime 23-17.
Trend Highlight – Road Trip, Off Loss, Favorable Line Movement
This Pro System, which is 167-97 (63.3%) ATS all-time, takes advantage of a few common trends in the NFL. First, road teams are historically undervalued (road teams 51.2% ATS, home teams 48.8% ATS). Casual bettors are also susceptible to recency bias, thus value on teams coming off a loss (50.5% ATS). When you combine these two trends plus favorable line movement you get a winning betting system.
A game matching this Pro System in Week 14 was Washington at Philadelphia. This was the Redskins third straight road game and the team had lost the previous two. After a slow start Kirk Cousins threw two second half touchdowns and Washington rallied to win 27-22.
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