The NFL is heading down the season’s final stretch. It’s about to get good with just four games remaining. Before we look ahead, here is a recap of all the Week 13 betting action.

Betting Trends

  • Favorites went 9-6 (60.0%) ATS
  • Home teams went 10-5 (66.7%) ATS
  • Overs went 7-7-1 (50.0%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 1-4 (20.0%) ATS
  • Teams with a winning record: 10-7 (58.8%) ATS

Biggest Money-line Upset

Lions (+251) at Saints

Matthew Stafford threw for 341 yards and two touchdowns including the pass to Golden Tate on third-and-long that resulted in a 66-yard score that put the Lions head comfortably. This was Detroit’s first win of the season by more than seven points and first time the team hadn’t trailed in the fourth quarter.

Pick-Two

After Atlanta rallied to take a 28-27 lead the Falcons decided to go for 2 to make it a three point game. However, Eric Berry intercepted the 2-point conversion and returned it for a two point score, which gave KC a 29-28 victory.

Bad Beat

Sam Bradford is not a good quarterback. If you bet Dallas -3 vs. Minnesota on Thursday night you had to feel pretty good when the Cowboys punted up 17-9 with two minutes to play. Of course Bradford engineered an eight-play scoring drive only to look like “Sam Bradford” on the two-point conversion. Had the Vikings managed to tie the game there was a good chance Dallas bettors get a push or even a cover when the game goes to overtime.

Trend Highlight – Primetime Line Movement

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This system takes advantage of primetime games that have seen line movement in favor of a team by at least two points. These line moves in primetime games are often the results of public bettors overreacting to a piece of information (injury/suspension).

One game matched this system in Week 13. The Colts opened as favorites but closed as small road underdogs. Andrew Luck, who missed the previous game with a concussion, threw for 278 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-10 rout of the Jets.

All-time betting primetime line movement has gone 55-32 (63.2%) ATS.

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