2016 NFL Week 12 Review

2016 NFL Week 12 Review

The Thanksgiving slate of games was delicious, the Dolphins and Giants are on six game winning streaks and the Niners have dropped ten in a row, here is the rest of your Week 12 betting recap.

Betting Trends

  • Favorites went 8-7-1 (53.3%) ATS
  • Road teams went 8-7-1 (53.3%) ATS
  • Overs went 8-8 (50.0%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 3-5 (37.5%) ATS
  • Teams with a winning record: 5-7 (41.7%) ATS

Biggest Money-line Upset

Buccaneers (+190) vs. Seahawks

A week after upsetting the Chiefs, the Bucs pulled the same trick on Seattle. Alterraun Verner had one of two interceptions of Russell Wilson and the Tampa Bay defense hit the quarterback 11 times resulting in six sacks. The Bucs have now won three straight and are back in playoff contention.

Bank Shot

Kansas City won a wild game against Denver 30-27 in overtime. Cairo Santos bounced a 34-yard field goal off the left upright to win the game. Denver is now two games back of Oakland and one behind KC in the AFC West.

Bad Beat

New England closed as 9 point favorites but were available at -7.5 early in the week. The Patriots struggled against the Jets for most of the day but came out on top 22-17. The Pats had a chance to cover after recovering a fumble deep in Jets territory with less than two minutes to play. Facing a 3rd-and-2 from the New York 26-yard line LeGarrette Blount rushed for 23 yards and a first down. Had he been stopped short of the first down, New England likely kicks the field goal, which would have covered the 7.5 point spread (25-17) or if Blount picks up three more yards on his big run the Pats score a touchdown covering the spread (29-17) for all bettors.

Trend Highlight – Bad ATS vs. Good ATS

Recency bias can cloud a bettor’s judgment. It is easy to want to back teams that have covered and fade those that haven’t but it is profitable to do the opposite. Betting teams that have been bad against-the-spread vs. teams with winning against-the-spread records is a lucrative system.

There were six plays generated by this Pro System in Week 12 including the Jags +8.5 at Buffalo. Jacksonville led in the fourth and had a chance to pull the upset before turning the ball over on downs late. The Jaguars covered despite being just 3-7 ATS before this game.

All-time betting bad ATS teams vs. good ATS teams has gone 144-88 (62.1%) ATS.

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