2016 NFL Week 10 Review

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Dallas can’t be stopped, the Pats stumble and good games led to a ratings rebound for the league. Here is your NFL Week 10 betting recap.

Betting Trends

  • Underdogs went 10-4 (71.4%) ATS
  • Road teams went 8-6 (57.1%) ATS
  • Overs went 7-7 (50.0%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 6-1 (85.7%) ATS
  • Teams with a winning record: 7-3 (70.3%) ATS

Biggest Money-line Upset

Seahawks (+273) at Patriots 

Seattle got a goal line stop and the Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 31-24 on Sunday night. Russell Wilson threw three touchdowns, all to Doug Baldwin, and racked up 348 yards passing. Tom Brady threw his first interception of the season and failed to score a touchdown.

Blocked Point After

The Broncos blocked an extra-point kick that would have given New Orleans a late lead, instead Denver returned the miss 84 yards for a defensive two-point conversion. It was the first play of its kind to provide the winning points in an NFL game. Denver won 25-23 in New Orleans Sunday.

Bad Beat

The Chiefs Marcus Peters just took the ball away from Kelvin Benjamin with 20 seconds to play, Cairo Santos kicked a 37-yard field goal as time expired and the Chiefs won 20-17. For those who backed Carolina at -3 it was a stunning turn of events. The Panthers jumped out to an early 17-0 lead and were 94.8% likely to win according to ESPN’s win probability chart before Cam’s pick-six in the fourth.

Trend Highlight – Double Digit Dog after Double Digit Loss

Fans and bettors alike often overreact to one game in the NFL. San Francisco is having a bad season and in Week 9 the Saints rolled the 49ers at home. After the bad loss the Arizona Cardinals opened as two touchdown favorites over the Niners. The line was inflated because of the prior weeks poor performance and thus there was value taking the big underdog.

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Betting double digit dogs after a double digit loss has gone 47-15 (75.8%) ATS, +28.9 units all-time.

Arizona needed a 34-yard field goal as time expired to beat San Francisco 23-20. The cover was never in doubt as the Niners spent the second half within striking distance of winning the game.

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