The NFL season is quickly approaching and I will once again be producing divisional previews for the upcoming season. While preparing for those, it’s a necessary step to determine how tough each team’s road will be this season. In other words, I created a projected NFL strength of schedule. I have seen other sites do this by using last year’s record but that is simply a terrible way to do it. Below are the 32 NFL teams ranked from hardest schedule to easiest along with the number of wins they are projected to gain/lose based solely on playing their schedule.
| Rank | Team | Wins +/- |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | -0.356 |
| 2 | Redskins | -0.280 |
| 3 | Eagles | -0.223 |
| 4 | Falcons | -0.209 |
| 5 | Jets | -0.206 |
| 6 | Browns | -0.164 |
| 7 | Texans | -0.130 |
| 8 | Buccaneers | -0.130 |
| 9 | Broncos | -0.114 |
| 10 | Jaguars | -0.103 |
| 11 | Vikings | -0.102 |
| 12 | Saints | -0.087 |
| 13 | Rams | -0.081 |
| 14 | Lions | -0.059 |
| 15 | Bills | -0.056 |
| 16 | Titans | -0.007 |
| 17 | Chiefs | 0.018 |
| 18 | Dolphins | 0.031 |
| 19 | Raiders | 0.037 |
| 20 | Bengals | 0.063 |
| 21 | Ravens | 0.065 |
| 22 | Bears | 0.069 |
| 23 | Chargers | 0.144 |
| 24 | Packers | 0.148 |
| 25 | Colts | 0.149 |
| 26 | Cardinals | 0.154 |
| 27 | Steelers | 0.178 |
| 28 | Patriots | 0.184 |
| 29 | Seahawks | 0.216 |
| 30 | Giants | 0.217 |
| 31 | Panthers | 0.230 |
| 32 | Cowboys | 0.405 |
The 49ers lead off our list with the hardest schedule of the 32 teams; good luck Chip Kelly. A true .500 team would only be favored in 3 of the 16 games on San Francisco’s schedule: home games against the Rams, Bucs, and Saints. The remaining home games for the 49ers include the Cowboys, Cardinals, Patriots, Jets, and Seahawks. At least you still have the Warriors, I guess. Other teams that have a tough road ahead include the Redskins, Eagles, Falcons, and Jets.
On the other end of the spectrum are the Dallas Cowboys who gain nearly half a win with their 2016 schedule. A .500 team would have a 45% chance of winning in 13 of the 16 games the Cowboys play this year. The three tough games for Big D are road tests against the Packers, Steelers, and Vikings. Other teams with an easy schedule include the Panthers, Giants, Seahawks, and Patriots.