2016 NFL Strength of Schedule

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The NFL season is quickly approaching and I will once again be producing divisional previews for the upcoming season.  While preparing for those, it’s a necessary step to determine how tough each team’s road will be this season.  In other words, I created a projected NFL strength of schedule.  I have seen other sites do this by using last year’s record but that is simply a terrible way to do it.  Below are the 32 NFL teams ranked from hardest schedule to easiest along with the number of wins they are projected to gain/lose based solely on playing their schedule.

RankTeamWins +/-
149ers-0.356
2Redskins-0.280
3Eagles-0.223
4Falcons-0.209
5Jets-0.206
6Browns-0.164
7Texans-0.130
8Buccaneers-0.130
9Broncos-0.114
10Jaguars-0.103
11Vikings-0.102
12Saints-0.087
13Rams-0.081
14Lions-0.059
15Bills-0.056
16Titans-0.007
17Chiefs0.018
18Dolphins0.031
19Raiders0.037
20Bengals0.063
21Ravens0.065
22Bears0.069
23Chargers0.144
24Packers0.148
25Colts0.149
26Cardinals0.154
27Steelers0.178
28Patriots0.184
29Seahawks0.216
30Giants0.217
31Panthers0.230
32Cowboys0.405

The 49ers lead off our list with the hardest schedule of the 32 teams; good luck Chip Kelly.  A true .500 team would only be favored in 3 of the 16 games on San Francisco’s schedule: home games against the Rams, Bucs, and Saints.  The remaining home games for the 49ers include the Cowboys, Cardinals, Patriots, Jets, and Seahawks.  At least you still have the Warriors, I guess.  Other teams that have a tough road ahead include the Redskins, Eagles, Falcons, and Jets.

On the other end of the spectrum are the Dallas Cowboys who gain nearly half a win with their 2016 schedule.  A .500 team would have a 45% chance of winning in 13 of the 16 games the Cowboys play this year.  The three tough games for Big D are road tests against the Packers, Steelers, and Vikings.  Other teams with an easy schedule include the Panthers, Giants, Seahawks, and Patriots.

 

©2016 Sports Insights Inc.

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