It is Selection Day. The conference championships are in the books and the committee has a lot to think about. Before the final four teams are unveiled for the College Football Playoff, here is your Week 14 betting recap.

Betting Trends

  • Underdogs went 10-6 (62.5%) ATS
  • Home teams went 5-5 (50.0%) ATS
  • Unders went 11-5 (68.8%)
  • Betting against the public (<35% of tickets): 6-2 (75.0%) ATS
  • Ranked teams getting <50% of the bets: 4-2 ATS

Biggest Money-line Upsets

Georgia Southern (+213) vs. Troy

Kevin Ellison did most of the heavy lifting for the Eagles Saturday. Georgia Southern’s quarterback threw two touchdowns and ran for two more racking up 115 yards on the ground. The upset snapped a four-game losing streak and prevented Troy from tying for their sixth Sun Belt championship.

Kansas State (+160) at TCU

Jesse Ertz rushed for a career-high 170 yards and the first touchdown of the game that gave K-State a lead they would never relinquish. The Wildcats pounded the ball on the ground accumulating 336 yards, it was the sixth consecutive game with at least 200 rushing yards.

Penn State (+120) vs. Wisconsin

Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley led the Nittany Lions back from a 21 point deficit. McSorley set Big Ten title game records with 384 passing yards and four touchdowns. Penn State was as much as +2000 money-line underdogs on in-game betting at 5Dimes when the team was down three scores. The impressive rally was enough to earn the conference championship but will the selection committee reward the Nittany Lions with a playoff berth?

Alabama Crimson Tide

Bama didn’t even need to play the SEC title game. The Tide could have lost to Florida and still likely found its way to a third straight playoff appearance. But to leave no doubts, Alabama rolled Florida 54-16. Nick Saban’s squad is the favorite to repeat and win the program’s fifth title in nine years.

Trend Highlight – Windy Unders

Weather can have a significant impact on college football games. Wind, especially strong sustained gusts, can sway the over/under. Windy games make it harder to complete passes and to make field goals, leading to less scoring.

One game during Conference Championship week was expected to have high winds. The Navy/Temple game had gusts of over 13 mph throughout the contest. The under of 59.5 easily covered with the teams combining to score just 17 points in the second half.

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All-time, betting the under in windy games has gone 432-319 (57.5%) ATS. This season the Pro System is 23-14 (62.0%) ATS.

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