The 2016-17 NBA regular season came to a close. With the playoffs starting Saturday here is a recap of all the betting action.
Underdogs went 624-590 (51.4%) ATS
- This is the first time in 5 years that underdogs were profitable all season
Home teams went 618-593 (51.0%) ATS
- Blindly betting home teams would have cost you 5.89 units but in the last 12 years on average home teams have lost 52.55 units per season
Betting against the public remains highly profitable
Fading the public by spread ticket percentage
Fading the public by spread dollars
Most Profitable ATS teams
The Sixers surprised everyone, including the bookmakers, by fielding a competitive team. Blindly betting Philly this season would have netted you +13.74 units.
Least Profitable ATS teams
Combined the Magic, Hornets, Bucks and Timberwolves cost bettors 51.49 units this season.
Most Profitable OVER teams
Most Profitable UNDER teams
Since 2005, there 22 games with totals of 235 or greater, 10 of those games occurred this season and the OVER went 3-7.
- The Warriors won 14 straight (March 14th to April 8th)
- The Nets lost 16 in a row from January 21st to February 25th
- Miami covered 13 straight games from January to February
- The Rockets (active) and Lakers failed to cover in 8 straight games
Biggest Money-line Upsets
Hawks +1289 at Cavs
Tim Hardaway Jr. on back to back nights puts 23 up on the Celtics and 22 up on the Cavs ???????????? pic.twitter.com/ny22V7rbVx
— Michigan Moments (@GoBlueMoments) April 8, 2017
Resting Dwight Howard an three other key starters, Atlanta shocked Cleveland 114-100 one game after the Cavs put themselves in position to capture the top seed in the East by thumping the Celtics.
Kings +1198 vs. Warriors
Steph blew the layup ????
Kings get a 109-106 win over the Warriors in OT pic.twitter.com/GdoxvsMgmW
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 5, 2017
Stephen Curry missed a layup, Steve Kerr was ejected and the Kings upset the Warriors 109-106 in overtime. Sacramento snapped a 13-game losing streak to Golden State.
Lakers +1051 at Spurs
— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) April 6, 2017
The Lakers never trailed and led by as many as 26 points in a 102-95 win over the Spurs. The victory snapped an eight-game losing streak to San Antonio.
- Grizzlies +1051 at Warriors
- Kings +930 at Clippers
- Grizzlies +916 at Clippers
- Magic +798 at Spurs
It was a tight race all season, one in which James Harden was favored to win but in late March that all changed. As Russell Westbrook’s triple doubles started to mount the oddsmakers slowly made the OKC a prohibitive favorite to win the award.
Rookie of the Year
Who wants to win the Rookie of the Year award? Ben Simmons +130 was the preseason favorite but he never played. Joel Embiid was the favorite for much of the regular season reaching -2500 in late January but injuries also ended his season early. Finally, fellow Sixer Dario Saric ends the season as a -240 favorite.
Season Win Totals
- 14 teams went OVER, 16 teams went UNDER
- 5 teams totals were decided on the final night, the UNDER went 1-4
Most Overachieving Teams
- Rockets won 8.5 more games
- Spurs 3.5
- Wizards 2.5
- Bulls 2.5
Most Underachieving Teams
- Timberwolves 13.5 fewer games than expected
- Blazers 12.5
- Pistons 11.5
- Knicks 11.5
Get ready for the NBA Playoffs
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