This is the fourth of eight division previews for the 2015-16 NFL season. All data displayed comes from simulating the entire season 10,000 times.
We’ll start with America’s favorite team (to hate); the Dallas Cowboys:
2014 Record: 12-4 | Home Games: ATL, CAR, NE, NYJ, SEA | Away Games: NO, TB, BUF, MIA, GB
The ‘Boys are the team to beat but they are not necessarily the runaway favorite. They are more likely to finish 8-8 than attain the same 12-4 record that won them the division last season. A division title could come down to a tiebreaker. 16.3% of simulations ended with a 2-way tie at the top of the NFC East and another 2.0% ended with three teams atop the standings. Nearly a 1 in 5 chance of a tie conveys just how competitive the division should be this season.
|Cowboys O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|9 wins||55.2%||25.8%||-214 / +214|
|9.5 wins||55.2%||44.8%||-123 / +123|
|10 wins||34.8%||44.8%||+129 / -129|
The market is right in line with the simulation for the Cowboys so neither side provides any value to make a wager.
Next up are the uptempo Philadelphia Eagles:
2014 Record: 10-6 | Home Games: NO, TB, BUF, MIA, ARI | Away Games: ATL, CAR, NE, NYJ, DET
The redesigned Eagles with Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray are likely to land between six and eleven wins with a 9-7 record being the most likely result (18.9% of simulations). Ten wins wasn’t enough to get Philly into the playoffs last year, and only 16.5% of simulations ended with more wins this upcoming season. A third straight season without a playoff win could lead to the end of the Chip Kelly experiment in the NFL.
|Eagles O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|9 wins||33.1%||48.0%||+145 / -145|
|9.5 wins||33.1%||66.9%||+202 / -202|
|10 wins||16.5%||66.9%||+406 / -406|
Eagles Under 9.5 is the side here as it appears it’s not always sunny in Philadelphia after all.
A middling Giants team is next on the list:
2014 Record: 6-10 | Home Games: ATL, CAR, NE, NYJ, SF | Away Games: NO, TB, BUF, MIA, MIN
Coming off a disappointing 6-win campaign, the Giants are expected to rebound slightly but it’s most likely to only be an increase of two wins. The portion of seasons ending in eleven or more wins is 6.3%. The more likely path to the playoffs is a 9 or 10-win season in which they claim the tiebreaker over the Cowboys or Eagles.
|Giants O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|8 wins||31.7%||48.7%||+154 / -154|
|8.5 wins||31.7%||68.3%||+215 / -215|
|9 wins||16.1%||68.3%||+424 / -424|
With the market at 8.5 wins (Under -140) and the most likely results of 8-8 and 7-9, the play here is Giants Under 8.5 wins.
We finish up with the Washington Redskins:
2014 Record: 4-12 | Home Games: NO, TB, BUF, MIA, STL | Away Games: ATL, CAR, NE, NYJ, CHI
Last season, Washington struggled to a 4-12 record and it looks like more struggles ahead this season. A 6-10 season occurred in 20.6% of simulations, making it the most likely result. The odds of a winning season in the nation’s capital are a paltry 7.8%.
|Redskins O/U||Over %||Under %||Implied Odds|
|6 wins||36.3%||43.1%||+119 / -119|
|6.5 wins||36.3%||63.7%||+175 / -175|
|7 wins||19.0%||63.7%||+335 / -335|
Another under bet for the NFC East as the true line for Redskins Under 6.5 is -175 but the market is pricing it around -150.
Finally we have the divisional odds. I was surprised to see the Cowboys win the division in over half of the simulations but they are the clear favorite by the numbers:
|Team||Division %||Implied Odds|
Up next, will be the AFC West division preview. If you would like to discuss this or any other preview, head on over to our new forum by using the button below.
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